[NatureNS] FWD: Winter Finch Forecast

Date: Mon, 11 Sep 2006 20:10:55 -0300
From: Joan Czapalay <joancz@ns.sympatico.ca>
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Lakes Ontario and Erie. B

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Excellent article, Blake. Thanks! Joan

Blake Maybank wrote:

> GENERAL FINCH FORECAST 2006 - 2007
>
> This is one of those rare years when most conifers (softwoods) and
> broad-leaved deciduous trees (hardwoods) have synchronized bumper
> seed crops across much of Eastern Canada and the bordering United
> States. It will be an excellent winter to see winter finches in
> northern Ontario and central Ontario (e.g., Algonquin Park). Very few
> boreal finches will move south of Ontario this fall and winter. Most
> finches likely will be scarce even in southern Ontario south of the
> Canadian Shield this winter, despite bumper seed crops on native and
> ornamental species. There also are bumper cone crops in Quebec, the
> Maritime Provinces, New York and northern New England States, so
> finches will be there too, but in what numbers is the question,
> because excellent crops are so widespread this year. There are good
> cone crops west of Lake Superior in northwestern Ontario, but cone
> quality diminishs towards Manitoba because of severe drought
> conditions this year. Cone crops are generally poor at the
> continental extremes in Newfoundland and Alaska. Both White-winged
> and Red Crossbills have been arriving in Ontario since late June in
> areas with bumper cone crops. In addition to individual finch
> forecasts, I also comment on other irruptive species, such as the
> Red-breasted Nuthatch, whose movements are linked to winter finches.
> I added a new section this year called Finch Notes. It discusses
> bumper seed crops, how crossbills find cone crops, when crossbills
> move to bumper crops, when crossbills nest, road-killed finches, and
> where to see finches this winter in Ontario.
>
> INDIVIDUAL FINCH FORECASTS
>
> Pine Grosbeak: Most Pine Grosbeaks will stay in northern Ontario
> because the berry crop on mountain-ash (rowan berries) is excellent
> to bumper this year. As well, the large seed and berry crops on other
> trees and shrubs provide ample buffer food supplies to keep the
> grosbeaks in the north. A few Pine Grosbeaks may drift as far south
> as Algonquin Park where they are seen most winters.
>
> Purple Finch: The excellent tree seed crops on most coniferous and
> deciduous trees suggest that most (not all) Purple Finches will spend
> this winter in northern and central Ontario. Some may drift south in
> late winter and show up at feeders, which is typical of this species
> in big seed years as seed supplies diminish in late winter.
>
> Red Crossbill: Taxonomy and nomenclature are hopelessly confused. The
> Red Crossbill complex comprises at least eight types or forms
> (possibly full species) with different vocalizations and bill sizes
> related to cone preferences. Two or three forms are regular in
> Ontario. One prefers hemlock cones and the others are adapted mostly
> to pines, mainly white pine in Ontario. Red Crossbills have been seen
> and heard singing in hemlocks in August suggesting that the
> small-billed hemlock subspecies 'sitkensis' has moved into central
> Ontario where hemlock cone crops are excellent as in Algonquin Park
> and the Haliburton Highlands. The hemlock form has the smallest bill
> of all Red Crossbills, even smaller than the White-winged Crossbill's
> stubby bill. Road-killed 'sitkensis' can be identified by measuring
> their bills (culmen 13.5-15 mm). White pine cone crops, unlike other
> conifers, are poor in most of central Ontario such as Algonquin Park.
> However, some areas of northeastern Ontario have good white pine
> crops such as Marten River and Timmins. Watch for pine types of Red
> Crossbills wherever white and red pines have good cone crops. Since
> spruce cones are so abundant this year, I expect that Red Crossbills
> will be found feeding in spruce to some extent this winter.
>
> White-winged Crossbill: Like a pendulum, White-winged Crossbills move
> back and forth across the northern coniferous forests from
> Newfoundland to Alaska searching for cone crops. White-winged
> Crossbills will be widespread and perhaps common in many areas of
> northern and central Ontario because of the bumper seed crops on
> spruces, tamarack, balsam fir and hemlock. I expect that the highest
> concentrations of White-wings will be in northeastern Ontario between
> Lake Superior and Quebec where the super bumper crop of white spruce
> cones is "a 1-in-20-year cyclical phenomenon" making this is a rather
> rare event in seed production for white spruce (Scott McPherson,
> pers. comm.). White-winged Crossbills began increasing in northern
> Ontario in late June and increased during July associated with big
> cone crops. They are singing and feasting on an abundance of cone
> seeds and probably nesting. They likely will begin nesting again in
> early 2007. White-winged Crossbills in Algonquin Park have been
> widespread in small numbers since July and are singing. Nesting is
> suggested by two sightings of recently fledged young in August.
> White-winged Crossbills possibly came from western Canada and Alaska
> wandering eastward searching for cone crops. One reason why there are
> no subspecies on this continent versus the eight or more types of Red
> Crossbills is that White-winged Crossbill populations oscillate east
> and west across North America, and thus are constantly mixing. This
> allows outcrossing and gene flow among populations, suppressing the
> formation of geographical variation.
>
> Common Redpoll: This is not a flight year for redpolls in southern
> Ontario. Most Common and Hoary Redpolls will be in northern Ontario
> this winter because seed crops on white birch and alder are excellent
> to bumper there. As well, yellow birch has an excellent crop from
> southeastern Lake Superior into Quebec. This large crop will stall
> any redpolls wandering south of the boreal zone. A few redpolls may
> get as far south as Algonquin Park, but likely no farther.
>
> Pine Siskin: Most Pine Siskins will winter in northern and probably
> central Ontario this winter because cones crops are bumper on
> spruces, balsam fir, tamarack (larch), cedar and hemlock. Flocks of
> siskins can be identified at a distance by their distinctive flight
> formation. They swirl in tight flocks whereas redpolls fly in loose
> undulating flocks. Siskins should breed early next spring in northern
> Ontario. Only one subspecies occurs across Canada, indicating that
> highly nomadic siskin populations mix from coast to coast, inhibiting
> the formation of geographical variation.
>
> Evening Grosbeak: Evening Grosbeaks will stay in the boreal forest
> this winter because tree seed crops are excellent on conifers and
> hardwoods such