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Lakes Ontario and Erie. B --Boundary_(ID_OC3T18/45vfog2jhsAim9g) Content-type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii Content-transfer-encoding: 7BIT Excellent article, Blake. Thanks! Joan Blake Maybank wrote: > GENERAL FINCH FORECAST 2006 - 2007 > > This is one of those rare years when most conifers (softwoods) and > broad-leaved deciduous trees (hardwoods) have synchronized bumper > seed crops across much of Eastern Canada and the bordering United > States. It will be an excellent winter to see winter finches in > northern Ontario and central Ontario (e.g., Algonquin Park). Very few > boreal finches will move south of Ontario this fall and winter. Most > finches likely will be scarce even in southern Ontario south of the > Canadian Shield this winter, despite bumper seed crops on native and > ornamental species. There also are bumper cone crops in Quebec, the > Maritime Provinces, New York and northern New England States, so > finches will be there too, but in what numbers is the question, > because excellent crops are so widespread this year. There are good > cone crops west of Lake Superior in northwestern Ontario, but cone > quality diminishs towards Manitoba because of severe drought > conditions this year. Cone crops are generally poor at the > continental extremes in Newfoundland and Alaska. Both White-winged > and Red Crossbills have been arriving in Ontario since late June in > areas with bumper cone crops. In addition to individual finch > forecasts, I also comment on other irruptive species, such as the > Red-breasted Nuthatch, whose movements are linked to winter finches. > I added a new section this year called Finch Notes. It discusses > bumper seed crops, how crossbills find cone crops, when crossbills > move to bumper crops, when crossbills nest, road-killed finches, and > where to see finches this winter in Ontario. > > INDIVIDUAL FINCH FORECASTS > > Pine Grosbeak: Most Pine Grosbeaks will stay in northern Ontario > because the berry crop on mountain-ash (rowan berries) is excellent > to bumper this year. As well, the large seed and berry crops on other > trees and shrubs provide ample buffer food supplies to keep the > grosbeaks in the north. A few Pine Grosbeaks may drift as far south > as Algonquin Park where they are seen most winters. > > Purple Finch: The excellent tree seed crops on most coniferous and > deciduous trees suggest that most (not all) Purple Finches will spend > this winter in northern and central Ontario. Some may drift south in > late winter and show up at feeders, which is typical of this species > in big seed years as seed supplies diminish in late winter. > > Red Crossbill: Taxonomy and nomenclature are hopelessly confused. The > Red Crossbill complex comprises at least eight types or forms > (possibly full species) with different vocalizations and bill sizes > related to cone preferences. Two or three forms are regular in > Ontario. One prefers hemlock cones and the others are adapted mostly > to pines, mainly white pine in Ontario. Red Crossbills have been seen > and heard singing in hemlocks in August suggesting that the > small-billed hemlock subspecies 'sitkensis' has moved into central > Ontario where hemlock cone crops are excellent as in Algonquin Park > and the Haliburton Highlands. The hemlock form has the smallest bill > of all Red Crossbills, even smaller than the White-winged Crossbill's > stubby bill. Road-killed 'sitkensis' can be identified by measuring > their bills (culmen 13.5-15 mm). White pine cone crops, unlike other > conifers, are poor in most of central Ontario such as Algonquin Park. > However, some areas of northeastern Ontario have good white pine > crops such as Marten River and Timmins. Watch for pine types of Red > Crossbills wherever white and red pines have good cone crops. Since > spruce cones are so abundant this year, I expect that Red Crossbills > will be found feeding in spruce to some extent this winter. > > White-winged Crossbill: Like a pendulum, White-winged Crossbills move > back and forth across the northern coniferous forests from > Newfoundland to Alaska searching for cone crops. White-winged > Crossbills will be widespread and perhaps common in many areas of > northern and central Ontario because of the bumper seed crops on > spruces, tamarack, balsam fir and hemlock. I expect that the highest > concentrations of White-wings will be in northeastern Ontario between > Lake Superior and Quebec where the super bumper crop of white spruce > cones is "a 1-in-20-year cyclical phenomenon" making this is a rather > rare event in seed production for white spruce (Scott McPherson, > pers. comm.). White-winged Crossbills began increasing in northern > Ontario in late June and increased during July associated with big > cone crops. They are singing and feasting on an abundance of cone > seeds and probably nesting. They likely will begin nesting again in > early 2007. White-winged Crossbills in Algonquin Park have been > widespread in small numbers since July and are singing. Nesting is > suggested by two sightings of recently fledged young in August. > White-winged Crossbills possibly came from western Canada and Alaska > wandering eastward searching for cone crops. One reason why there are > no subspecies on this continent versus the eight or more types of Red > Crossbills is that White-winged Crossbill populations oscillate east > and west across North America, and thus are constantly mixing. This > allows outcrossing and gene flow among populations, suppressing the > formation of geographical variation. > > Common Redpoll: This is not a flight year for redpolls in southern > Ontario. Most Common and Hoary Redpolls will be in northern Ontario > this winter because seed crops on white birch and alder are excellent > to bumper there. As well, yellow birch has an excellent crop from > southeastern Lake Superior into Quebec. This large crop will stall > any redpolls wandering south of the boreal zone. A few redpolls may > get as far south as Algonquin Park, but likely no farther. > > Pine Siskin: Most Pine Siskins will winter in northern and probably > central Ontario this winter because cones crops are bumper on > spruces, balsam fir, tamarack (larch), cedar and hemlock. Flocks of > siskins can be identified at a distance by their distinctive flight > formation. They swirl in tight flocks whereas redpolls fly in loose > undulating flocks. Siskins should breed early next spring in northern > Ontario. Only one subspecies occurs across Canada, indicating that > highly nomadic siskin populations mix from coast to coast, inhibiting > the formation of geographical variation. > > Evening Grosbeak: Evening Grosbeaks will stay in the boreal forest > this winter because tree seed crops are excellent on conifers and > hardwoods such