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--=======AVGMAIL-450288FA096F======= Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="=====================_1373687==.ALT"; x-avg-checked=avg-ok-1E706E06 --=====================_1373687==.ALT Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii; format=flowed; x-avg-checked=avg-ok-1E706E06 GENERAL FINCH FORECAST 2006 - 2007 This is one of those rare years when most conifers (softwoods) and broad-leaved deciduous trees (hardwoods) have synchronized bumper seed crops across much of Eastern Canada and the bordering United States. It will be an excellent winter to see winter finches in northern Ontario and central Ontario (e.g., Algonquin Park). Very few boreal finches will move south of Ontario this fall and winter. Most finches likely will be scarce even in southern Ontario south of the Canadian Shield this winter, despite bumper seed crops on native and ornamental species. There also are bumper cone crops in Quebec, the Maritime Provinces, New York and northern New England States, so finches will be there too, but in what numbers is the question, because excellent crops are so widespread this year. There are good cone crops west of Lake Superior in northwestern Ontario, but cone quality diminishs towards Manitoba because of severe drought conditions this year. Cone crops are generally poor at the continental extremes in Newfoundland and Alaska. Both White-winged and Red Crossbills have been arriving in Ontario since late June in areas with bumper cone crops. In addition to individual finch forecasts, I also comment on other irruptive species, such as the Red-breasted Nuthatch, whose movements are linked to winter finches. I added a new section this year called Finch Notes. It discusses bumper seed crops, how crossbills find cone crops, when crossbills move to bumper crops, when crossbills nest, road-killed finches, and where to see finches this winter in Ontario. INDIVIDUAL FINCH FORECASTS Pine Grosbeak: Most Pine Grosbeaks will stay in northern Ontario because the berry crop on mountain-ash (rowan berries) is excellent to bumper this year. As well, the large seed and berry crops on other trees and shrubs provide ample buffer food supplies to keep the grosbeaks in the north. A few Pine Grosbeaks may drift as far south as Algonquin Park where they are seen most winters. Purple Finch: The excellent tree seed crops on most coniferous and deciduous trees suggest that most (not all) Purple Finches will spend this winter in northern and central Ontario. Some may drift south in late winter and show up at feeders, which is typical of this species in big seed years as seed supplies diminish in late winter. Red Crossbill: Taxonomy and nomenclature are hopelessly confused. The Red Crossbill complex comprises at least eight types or forms (possibly full species) with different vocalizations and bill sizes related to cone preferences. Two or three forms are regular in Ontario. One prefers hemlock cones and the others are adapted mostly to pines, mainly white pine in Ontario. Red Crossbills have been seen and heard singing in hemlocks in August suggesting that the small-billed hemlock subspecies 'sitkensis' has moved into central Ontario where hemlock cone crops are excellent as in Algonquin Park and the Haliburton Highlands. The hemlock form has the smallest bill of all Red Crossbills, even smaller than the White-winged Crossbill's stubby bill. Road-killed 'sitkensis' can be identified by measuring their bills (culmen 13.5-15 mm). White pine cone crops, unlike other conifers, are poor in most of central Ontario such as Algonquin Park. However, some areas of northeastern Ontario have good white pine crops such as Marten River and Timmins. Watch for pine types of Red Crossbills wherever white and red pines have good cone crops. Since spruce cones are so abundant this year, I expect that Red Crossbills will be found feeding in spruce to some extent this winter. White-winged Crossbill: Like a pendulum, White-winged Crossbills move back and forth across the northern coniferous forests from Newfoundland to Alaska searching for cone crops. White-winged Crossbills will be widespread and perhaps common in many areas of northern and central Ontario because of the bumper seed crops on spruces, tamarack, balsam fir and hemlock. I expect that the highest concentrations of White-wings will be in northeastern Ontario between Lake Superior and Quebec where the super bumper crop of white spruce cones is "a 1-in-20-year cyclical phenomenon" making this is a rather rare event in seed production for white spruce (Scott McPherson, pers. comm.). White-winged Crossbills began increasing in northern Ontario in late June and increased during July associated with big cone crops. They are singing and feasting on an abundance of cone seeds and probably nesting. They likely will begin nesting again in early 2007. White-winged Crossbills in Algonquin Park have been widespread in small numbers since July and are singing. Nesting is suggested by two sightings of recently fledged young in August. White-winged Crossbills possibly came from western Canada and Alaska wandering eastward searching for cone crops. One reason why there are no subspecies on this continent versus the eight or more types of Red Crossbills is that White-winged Crossbill populations oscillate east and west across North America, and thus are constantly mixing. This allows outcrossing and gene flow among populations, suppressing the formation of geographical variation. Common Redpoll: This is not a flight year for redpolls in southern Ontario. Most Common and Hoary Redpolls will be in northern Ontario this winter because seed crops on white birch and alder are excellent to bumper there. As well, yellow birch has an excellent crop from southeastern Lake Superior into Quebec. This large crop will stall any redpolls wandering south of the boreal zone. A few redpolls may get as far south as Algonquin Park, but likely no farther. Pine Siskin: Most Pine Siskins will winter in northern and probably central Ontario this winter because cones crops are bumper on spruces, balsam fir, tamarack (larch), cedar and hemlock. Flocks of siskins can be identified at a distance by their distinctive flight formation. They swirl in tight flocks whereas redpolls fly in loose undulating flocks. Siskins should breed early next spring in northern Ontario. Only one subspecies occurs across Canada, indicating that highly nomadic siskin populations mix from coast to coast, inhibiting the formation of geographical variation. Evening Grosbeak: Evening Grosbeaks will stay in the boreal forest this winter because tree seed crops are excellent on conifers and hardwoods such as black ash. Expect a few in Algonquin Park, particularly around the feeders at the Visitor Centre. The eastern population of Evening Grosbeaks started declining in 1980 as large outbreaks of spruce budworm subsided. The population is probably stable now, but much reduced from the 1970s when Evening Grosbeaks were common at bird feeders. OTHER IRRUPTIVE SPECIES Blue Jay: A small to moderate flight is expected. The good to excellent crop of beechnuts on American beech in most areas of central and southern Ontario should keep most Blue Jays from migrating south this September and October along the shorelines of Lakes Ontario and Erie. B