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This is a multi-part message in MIME format. --------------A6688F469486588612B5CD0F Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit --------------A6688F469486588612B5CD0F Content-Type: message/rfc822 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit Content-Disposition: inline Received: from pan.cedar.univie.ac.at (majordom@[193.170.161.99]) by mail1.auracom.net (8.8.8/8.8.5) with ESMTP id TAA24950 for <blrltd@auracom.com>; Tue, 7 Apr 1998 19:42:19 -0400 (EDT) Received: (from majordom@localhost) by pan.cedar.univie.ac.at (8.8.7/8.7.3) id QAA29931 for infoterra-outgoing; Tue, 7 Apr 1998 16:43:30 -0100 X-Authentication-Warning: pan.cedar.univie.ac.at: majordom set sender to owner-infoterra using -f Received: from mx1.rmplc.co.uk (rattle.rmplc.co.uk [194.154.16.99]) by pan.cedar.univie.ac.at (8.8.7/8.7.3) with ESMTP id QAA29921 for <infoterra@cedar.univie.ac.at>; Tue, 7 Apr 1998 16:42:24 -0100 Received: from [194.238.54.110] (swordfish-unfilt-12.rmplc.co.uk [194.238.54.76]) by mx1.rmplc.co.uk (8.8.8/8.8.8) with SMTP id OAA32534; Tue, 7 Apr 1998 14:32:38 GMT Date: Tue, 7 Apr 1998 14:32:38 GMT X-Sender: ecoliza@mail.rmplc.co.uk Message-Id: <v01520d09b14fe12034fc@[194.238.54.110]> Mime-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="us-ascii" To: Stephen Willis <9454851@iona.sms.ed.ac.uk>, Simon Jury <SMJ001@unl.ac.uk>, Jens Subke <jens@bti0n01e.bitoek.uni-bayreuth.de>, "D.Sibley" <ycrnn53@ucl.ac.uk>, Alyssa Kunau <Kunau@stolaf.edu>, tivon@u.arizona.edu, lars@u.arizona.edu, steve.cook@m.cc.utah.edu (steven C.Cook), "spanna" <9440496@mull.sms.ed.ac.uk> Anna Hillman, "SAMANTHA MOIR" <9466699@lewis.sms.ed.ac.uk>, "Caroline Bird" May Bird <101355.3245@COMPUSERVE.COM>, Birgit Isabel Linkohr <bil@st-andrews.ac.uk>, "Andrew Harwood" <9472283@arran.sms.ed.ac.uk>, "g.r.heerebout" <heerebgr@pi.net>, petruskha <L.Renders@plymouth.ac.uk>, ecoliza@rmplc.co.uk From: ecoliza@rmplc.co.uk (Ecologia) Subject: INFOTERRA: Open Letter to The World Community Cc: Angus Marland <amarland@gn.apc.org>, ENVIRONMENT-L@CORNELL.EDU, mceastgibsone@findhorn.org Sender: owner-infoterra@cedar.univie.ac.at Reply-To: ecoliza@rmplc.co.uk (Ecologia) >From: Sviatoslav Zabelin >Goldman Environmental Prize winner-93 >Co-chairman of the Council of >Socio-Ecological Union, International >E-mail: svet@glasnet.ru >P.O.Box 211 Moscow 121019 Russia > >To: The World Community >Subject: Implications of the "Business-As-Usual" Scenario. > A Call to Action. > >Date: April 7, 1998 > > >Dear Friends: > The reason for this open letter is both very simple and very >complex. On one hand, economic and environmental indicators show that >we are at a critical threshold within the global economic and social >system . On the other hand, the majority of the population, from the >heads of government to the bottom of society cannot accept the idea >that the usual order will change crucially --and it will probably >happen in the very near future. > > I believe the foundation for this open letter is absolutely >pragmatic and realistic, without mystical interpretation. My intent is >not to frighten anyone but simply to transmit the facts, as I see >them, so that we humans can make the correct, life-giving decisions. > > I > In 1972 Donella Meadows, Dennis Meadows, Jorgen Renders and >William Behrens III prepared the report "Limits to Growth" for The >Club of Rome's project, The Predicament of Mankind. The computer >projections made by their World3 model showed that under the "business >as usual" scenario the economic growth of the world economic system >will stop and the system will collapse before 2020. > > In their book "Beyond the Limits" published in 1992 they repeated >their calculations and confirmed that no significant changes occured >during the past 20 years and the development of the world economy is >still coinciding with the computer projections stated in "Limits to >Growth". > > The financial crisis of South-East Asia in 1997, a 40% drop of >oil prices, and other indicators, show that the real growth in >production on the planet is slowing drastically. And what is really >booming are prices of stock shares. > > From my point of view we will face the predicted fall of the >global economy not in 2020 but much earlier, possibly at any moment. >The fall of the Berlin wall, the end of apartheid in South Africa, and >the break-up of the USSR, are good reminders of how quickly and >unpredictably social change can happen. > > Lester Brown, head of the World Watch Institute, stated that "the >global economy as now structured cannot continue to expand much longer >if the ecosystem on which it depends continues to deteriorate at the >current rate" He is deeply concerned that a poor grain harvest, most >notably in China, is the kind of spark that ignites an economic >forestfire with lethal repercussions. > > A crisis of this magnitude, will lead not only to a catastrophic >decrease of industrial production, not only to a catastrophic decrease >of agricultural production but also to a catastrophic decrease in >world population -- and the computer model World3 shows this quite >clearly. > > My first recommendation to those who would prefer not to "wait >and see " but instead, to act - is to reread the books of D.&D.Meadows >and Co, and compare their findings with your own observations. > > II > A global catastrophe, resulting from going beyond the limits to >growth, is not a fantasy. Please study the smaller, but highly >illustrative, crisis that happened with the Soviet Union as a limited >economic system in the 1980's in order to understand what lies ahead >if we do not change our ways. > > The description of crisis mechanisms and consequences from >"Limits to Growth" coincided with the reality of the Soviet and >post-Soviet society (despite the fact that the World3 model was made >for a market economy). > > This crisis led not only to a 10-year decline of industrial >activity, not only to the collapse of science, medicine, education, >not only to enormous unemployment, not only to hundreds of thousands >of victims in civil wars, but to a significant decrease of population >also (approximately 1,000,000 per year in the total Russian >populationof approximately 150,000,000). > > My second recommendation is to look at the crisis of USSR not >from the point of view as a victory of capitalism over communism but >to look at the deeper lesson to be learned. The demise of communism >can be seen as a limits-to-growth crisis. Come see the Russian >province for yourselves to learn what a crisis can do to a developed >country which launched the first man to the Cosmos. > > III > Despite massive amounts of evidence, most decision makers, >businessmen and NGO activists, spiritual leaders and artists--together >with the majority of the world population-- behave like we have >centuries to solve systemic problems. And it is understandable, the >human mind wants to avoid such painful information. Key crew members >on the ship Titanic failed to heed the warnings given to them. The >ship was considered "unsinkable" and speed and profits were the >priorities. However... WE can change course. We are flexible thinking >human beings who can act responsibly and save ourselves, our children, >and the living beings of Mother Earth. > > IY > It seems quite clear what preventative medicine is needed, both >generally and specifically. Lester R. Brown and Jennifer Mitchell's >concluded the "State of the World - 1998" by saying "we know what an >environmentally sustainable economy would look like, and we have the >technologies needed to build such an economy". > >I agree with them and... > We humans need to urgently realize that we are passengers on one >small ship: Planet Earth. > We need urgent cooperation between countries, between sectors, >between NGOs, between peoples, etc > We need disarmament immediatedly. > We need an exponential decrease of resource exploitation. > We need to respect life, the life of each woman/man and each >animal/plant. > We need self-limitation in consumption (firstly in the rich >countries). > And... > We humans can establish urgent binding international agreements. > We can increase taxes on environmentally destructive activities. > We can stop wilderness degradation. > Etc. > > Y > It is clear that the existing state machine cannot respond. > It is clear that pressuring this machine is simply ineffective. > It is clear that no one sector alone (governments, business, NGO) >can solve the problems that we face. > > YI > I am a leader of one of the biggest and well-known international >NGO networks, and I am scientist. > I am a citizen of the former USSR & Russia and I know how to live >in a "limits-to-growth-crisis". > I've met leaders of many other organizations and I respect their >efforts very much. But I know the limits of methods and means that we >have used in the past, what we are still using to this day. > I feel certain that we simply have no time to wait. We do not >have years to make critical decisions, only months, and I will repeat >this sense of urgency a thousand times if it will help. > > YII > I am sure that only a coalition of courageous peoples from >different sectors, from different countries can give humanity a chance >not to return to the Dark Ages with its murders, wars and plagues. > > I cannot avert, or lessen, this crisis alone. > I ask you to distribute my message by any means that you have. > I ask you to send this message to the businessmen, policy makers, >and leaders that you trust. > The positive future of Humanity and Life on Earth is in our >hands. > We must act together! > I am at your service. > > What follows is a description of what is likely to happen to the >developed world if the current trends are not radically altered. > Our choice is to wait or to act. > > *** > > Anticipated Crisis Events 1998 - 2003 (2010). > > This text is prepared using the results of investigations of Club >of Rome's experts D.&D.Meadows and others from the reports "Limits to >Growth" and "Beyond the Limits" as well as real facts sheets of the >Soviet Union's economy in 1985-1998 and what the author experienced >personally. > Nothing else. > From my point of view the scenario as described below can happen >at any moment if the current activities of governments, business, and >NGOs do not change dramatically in the next few months. > My goal is to invite you to do everything possible to avoid the >anticipated events. > Please excuse my brevity and lack of professional English - I am >prepared to answer all those who are interested with specific analysis >if requested. > > *** > 1. The first and most evident consequence of the crisis will be >the deep de-globalization of economy. > As in the USSR all interstate borders and barriers will be >restored and strengthened and the nations will restore their full >sovereignty including prevention of emmigration and extradiction of >immigrants and foreigners. > The biggest nations (like big systems); ie the US, Canada, >Russia, and China, will break up into smaller units: confederations, >states or republics. Maybe it will not just happen to the big systems? >Remember the cases of Yugoslavia and Checkoslovakia?! > It is easy also to foresee the disruption of the majority of >communications - Internet (the first to go), then the postal service, >transportation, etc. > > 2. The world market will simply disappear and the companies that >rely on world trade will be destroyed. It will be the same with the >countries that have an export oriented economy. It is easy to predict >the bankruptcy of companies where they have production units >distributed in different countries or simply where there are large >distances separating them from each other. > The high technology sector will collapse because it is dependent >on global trade -the manufacture of computers and electronics require >parts and labor from many countries. > > 3. The international bodies like UN, UNESCO, WTO, World Bank, etc >will be also cease to exists or will become vestigial structures >without any real power or influence. It is very probable that even the >idea of international legislation and international rights will be >abolished. > > 4. Because of the extremely difficult economic situation all the >states will deliberatly separate from each other and disavow all >social obligations, including the support of science, education, >healthcare, etc. Conversely, the state authorities will quickly build >up the military and police structures and will spend the majority of >their budget to build a strong army and strong internal security, >including the structure of suppression of the popular protests. > Because it is likely fear will reign, the population of the >majority of the countries, including the most democratic, will agree >with such changes in state policy and even the notions of civil >society and state's rights will be forgotten for centuries (hopefully, >only decades). > In the majority of states, authoritarian or totalitarian regimes >will establish themselves under democratic election procedures >(Germany in 1933 and Belorussia in 1996 are prime examples of how this >happens). > It is very probable that humanity will lose Science as a means of >managing society. Science will be replaced by the worship of >technology and antiquated religious beliefs. > > 5. The inequality in capability by the nation-states to arrive at >some form of economic self-suffiency will lead to an array of >international military conflicts where the whole spectrum of weapons, >including nuclear, chemical and bacteriological, will be used. > All international mechanisms preventing the use of chemical and >nuclear weapons will cease to exist. Poverty will force the states >(and private citizens) possessing such weapons and/or technologies to >sell them to those who would use them! > It is very probable (and the Iraq-US conflict illustrates this ) >that the Western countries will in all likelihood be the initiator of >the Third World War: they will lose their financial stability during >the crisis but not their ambitions and weapons. > *** > The result of the crisis will be that Humanity will return, to >God knows what century... > *** > The first victims of the crisis will be the population of the >developed countries, ie North America, Western Europe, New Zealand, >Australia, Japan, etc. They have the most to lose. They will lose >their quality of life, their comfort and their position as leading >nations. > Believe me - these will be truly national catastrophes. And I >really feel compassion for these peoples because they have no modern >experience of growing food and living off the land. They do not have >any recent experience in long-term storage (foods, clothing. etc ) > Even if they did, the majority of the population in these >countries have no private parcels of land to provide themselves with >food. > On the other hand - the developed countries - because they are >still rich, educated, powerful, etc have the chance to meet the crisis >with appropriate means. And to succeed to soften it - because it is >too late to entirely prevent it. > > The Socio-Ecological Union (285 groups from 18 countries) >formulated these means as follows: > > - assist the development of all forms of local democratic >self-government, mutually beneficial, self-sufficient local economies, >and the emergence of a non-governmental citizen movement to protect >human and environmental rights. A form of minimally centralized, >collective, self-organization will serve as the societal means to >overcome the crisis. > > - enhance the access of essential life-affirming information and >develop the spread of environmental education, using all means >possible. This is the equivalent to creating the intellectual, moral, >and spiritual conditions needed to overcome the crisis. > > - technologically "retro-fit" the human race within the limits >imposed by the Biosphere which includes processing all human waste. >This means quickly developing the appropriate technology necessary to >overcome the crisis. > > - reduce industrial and agricultural impact on the environment >and conserve as many natural areas as possible in different parts of >the world. This means conserving the natural environment and resources >necessary to overcome the crisis. > > - initiate global cooperation among all people despite their >social, political, national, or religious beliefs, or their >involvement in state, business or public sectors--anyone able to act >together towards reaching the above-stated goals. This means creating >the organizational mechanisms to overcome the crisis. > > All these objectives are equally important, and progress towards >realizing any one of them will both help lessen the impact of the >crisis and move us towards the development of a new civilization. > > *** > We as Human Beings, as Homo Sapiens, have a chance not to go >backwards, but to move forward to the next level of social >organization--what could be termed a cooperative, spiritually informed >civilization. God and/or Evolution gave us free-will. Let us choose >Life! > - message sent by infoterra@cedar.univie.ac.at to signoff from the list, send an email to majordomo@cedar.univie.ac.at the message body should read unsubscribe infoterra your@email.address - --------------A6688F469486588612B5CD0F--
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