next message in archive
no next message in thread
previous message in archive
previous message in thread
Index of Subjects
> I wonde
This is a multipart message in MIME format.
------=_NextPart_000_0030_01CF94BE.68BA4A50
Content-Type: text/plain;
charset="us-ascii"
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit
Ah, science!
It's true that speculation is certainly not proof, but "No evidence" is one
of the most meaningless statements in the scientific lexicon. I would like
to know how many times it has been used to permit, for instance,
non-sustainable fishing practices because there was "no evidence" that they
would have adverse effects. Sometimes common sense told otherwise, and the
cost needed for research sensitive enough to generate evidence was and is
often prohibitive, so the arguments in favour of making a fast buck
predominated. (Hell, why am I speaking in the past tense, they still do
predominate much too often!)
I once heard Donald Rumsfeld ridiculed for saying that "The absence of
evidence is not the evidence of absence." He was spot on (that time), and
it's a good lesson against attacking the source rather than the argument!
All that said, David, your contrarian comments are also well-taken and a lot
of fun to read! An excellent case of why reasoned debate is important .
and not just in the scientific realm.
From: naturens-owner@chebucto.ns.ca [mailto:naturens-owner@chebucto.ns.ca]
On Behalf Of David & Alison Webster
Sent: June-30-14 8:54 PM
To: naturens@chebucto.ns.ca
Subject: Re: [NatureNS] Wood Turtle: long
Hi Fred & All, June 30, 2014
Unless someone actually recorded the number of turtles removed or at
least a respectable sample of removal there is no valid reason to assume
removal to be the cause of decrease. Or even a valid reason to assume that a
significant number were removed.
Other changes might have taken place concurrently. The characteristics
of that water, if sampled, might provide a clue. BTW water low in alkalinity
is very poorly buffered so if site also had high pH and low alkalinity then
it would be unusually vulnerable to acidification by acid rain.
Removing 15% of turtles from a watershed year after year until they were
gone is not realistic. How does one proceed to remove that last few percent
? Capturing a constant percentage of the original population year after year
would require greatly enhanced collecting effort with time. A constant
decrease over time suggests a population that, due to some degradation of
the environment such as acid rain, was not reproducing. A reproducing
population should have compensated for removal (a type of predation) by
increasing egg count per female.
Some years ago I was on a Lep site and one long post related how
collecting had been 'conclusively' tied to extirpation of a rare Lep.
Someone found a glassine envelope, no rare Lep on site and jumped to a
conclusion which was soon spread widely as documented fact. Fortunately
someone had the good sense to check across the road where an artillery range
tended to start fires and retain the open habitat and Carex that this Lep
needed. The Lep had just moved where it could continue to have access to
this Carex.
Yt, DW
----- Original Message -----
From: "Fred Schueler" <bckcdb@istar.ca>
To: <naturens@chebucto.ns.ca>; "John Gilhen" <GILHENJA@gov.ns.ca>; "Andrew
Hebda" <HEBDAAJ@gov.ns.ca>
Sent: Monday, June 30, 2014 8:07 PM
Subject: Re: [NatureNS] Wood Turtle: long
> On 6/30/2014 6:13 PM, David & Alison Webster wrote:
>
>> I noticed on a post to naturens recently that (from the NS Museum
>> of NH site)--
>> "It may seem harmless to keep a turtle as a pet for a while, but this is
>> not a good idea. Two of the province's four turtle species are already
>> at risk in Nova Scotia. It is likely that removal of turtles by people
>> is part of the reason, for Wood Turtles."
>> I expect this supposition rests in part on your 1984
>> statement (Amphibians and Reptiles of Nova Scotia p. 148) that--
>> "Another problem facing the Wood Turtle is the removal of many
>> individuals from their habitat by people while on fishing trips or
>> camping trips" which are then subsequently "released in the woods many
>> kilometers from its natural habitat."
>> Perhaps you can provide some details of the observations on which
>> your above statement was based.
>
> * the story is told, though I don't have the reference at hand, of a
> municipal drinking water-shed reserve in Connecticut, where, in the
> glorious germ-phobia of the 1920s, all random human access was
> prohibited. A student studied the Wood Turtles there, and found a
> certain population.
>
> Then in the we'd-never-think-of-pooping-in-the-woods of the 1980s, that
> reserve was opened to hiking and biking and all, without otherwise
> changing the habitat, and the Wood Turtles declined at a rate of 15%/yr,
> until they were gone.
>
> I believe there's numerous places where similar declines due to casual
> pet-taking have been observed, though this case would seem to be
> exceptionally well documented.
>
> fred.
> ------------------------------------------------------------
> Frederick W. Schueler & Aleta Karstad
> Daily Paintings - http://karstaddailypaintings.blogspot.com/
> Vulnerable Watersheds - http://vulnerablewaters.blogspot.ca/
> study our books - http://pinicola.ca/books/index.htm
> RR#2 Bishops Mills, Ontario, Canada K0G 1T0
> on the Smiths Falls Limestone Plain 44* 52'N 75* 42'W
> (613)258-3107 <bckcdb at istar.ca> http://pinicola.ca/
> ------------------------------------------------------------
>
>
> -----
> No virus found in this message.
> Checked by AVG - www.avg.com
> Version: 2014.0.4714 / Virus Database: 3986/7771 - Release Date: 06/30/14
>
------=_NextPart_000_0030_01CF94BE.68BA4A50
Content-Type: text/html;
charset="us-ascii"
Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
<html xmlns:v=3D"urn:schemas-microsoft-com:vml" =
xmlns:o=3D"urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" =
xmlns:w=3D"urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:word" =
xmlns:m=3D"http://schemas.microsoft.com/office/2004/12/omml" =
xmlns=3D"http://www.w3.org/TR/REC-html40"><head><META =
HTTP-EQUIV=3D"Content-Type" CONTENT=3D"text/html; =
charset=3Dus-ascii"><meta name=3DGenerator content=3D"Microsoft Word 14 =
(filtered medium)"><style><!--
/* Font Definitions */
@font-face
{font-family:Calibri;
panose-1:2 15 5 2 2 2 4 3 2 4;}
@font-face
{font-family:Tahoma;
panose-1:2 11 6 4 3 5 4 4 2 4;}
/* Style Definitions */
p.MsoNormal, li.MsoNormal, div.MsoNormal
{margin:0cm;
margin-bottom:.0001pt;
font-size:12.0pt;
font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";}
a:link, span.MsoHyperlink
{mso-style-priority:99;
color:blue;
text-decoration:underline;}
a:visited, span.MsoHyperlinkFollowed
{mso-style-priority:99;
color:purple;
text-decoration:underline;}
p.MsoAcetate, li.MsoAcetate, div.MsoAcetate
{mso-style-priority:99;
mso-style-link:"Balloon Text Char";
margin:0cm;
margin-bottom:.0001pt;
font-size:8.0pt;
font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif";}
span.BalloonTextChar
{mso-style-name:"Balloon Text Char";
mso-style-priority:99;
mso-style-link:"Balloon Text";
font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif";}
span.EmailStyle20
{mso-style-type:personal-reply;
font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";
color:#1F497D;}
.MsoChpDefault
{mso-style-type:export-only;
font-size:10.0pt;}
@page WordSection1
{size:612.0pt 792.0pt;
margin:72.0pt 72.0pt 72.0pt 72.0pt;}
div.WordSection1
{page:WordSection1;}
--></style><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
<o:shapedefaults v:ext=3D"edit" spidmax=3D"1026" />
</xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
<o:shapelayout v:ext=3D"edit">
<o:idmap v:ext=3D"edit" data=3D"1" />
</o:shapelayout></xml><![endif]--></head><body lang=3DEN-CA link=3Dblue =
vlink=3Dpurple><div class=3DWordSection1><p class=3DMsoNormal><span =
style=3D'font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497=
D'>Ah, science!<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=3DMsoNormal><span =
style=3D'font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497=
D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=3DMsoNormal><span =
style=3D'font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497=
D'>It’s true that speculation is certainly not proof, but =
“No evidence” is one of the most meaningless statements in =
the scientific lexicon. I would like to know how many times it has =
been used to permit, for instance, non-sustainable fishing practices =
because there was “no evidence” that they would have =
adverse effects. Sometimes common sense told otherwise, and the =
cost needed for research sensitive enough to generate evidence was and =
is often prohibitive, so the arguments in favour of making a fast buck =
predominated. (Hell, why am I speaking in the past tense, they =
still do predominate much too often!)<o:p></o:p></span></p><p =
class=3DMsoNormal><span =
style=3D'font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497=
D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=3DMsoNormal><span =
style=3D'font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497=
D'>I once heard Donald Rumsfeld ridiculed for saying that “The =
absence of evidence is not the evidence of absence.” He was =
spot on (that time), and it’s a good lesson against attacking the =
source rather than the argument!<o:p></o:p></span></p><p =
class=3DMsoNormal><span =
style=3D'font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497=
D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=3DMsoNormal><span =
style=3D'font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497=
D'>All that said, David, your contrarian comments are also well-taken =
and a lot of fun to read! An excellent case of why reasoned debate =
is important … and not just in the scientific realm. =
<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=3DMsoNormal><span =
style=3D'font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497=
D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div><div =
style=3D'border:none;border-top:solid #B5C4DF 1.0pt;padding:3.0pt 0cm =
0cm 0cm'><p class=3DMsoNormal><b><span lang=3DEN-US =
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif"'>From:</span>=
</b><span lang=3DEN-US =
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif"'> =
naturens-owner@chebucto.ns.ca [mailto:naturens-owner@chebucto.ns.ca] =
<b>On Behalf Of </b>David & Alison Webster<br><b>Sent:</b> =
June-30-14 8:54 PM<br><b>To:</b> =
naturens@chebucto.ns.ca<br><b>Subject:</b> Re: [NatureNS] Wood Turtle: =
long<o:p></o:p></span></p></div></div><p =
class=3DMsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><div><p class=3DMsoNormal>Hi Fred =
& All, =
=
June 30, =
2014<o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=3DMsoNormal> =
Unless someone actually recorded the number of turtles removed or at =
least a respectable sample of removal there is no valid reason to assume =
removal to be the cause of decrease. Or even a valid reason to assume =
that a significant number were removed. <o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p =
class=3DMsoNormal> Other changes might have taken =
place concurrently. The characteristics of that water, if sampled, might =
provide a clue. BTW water low in alkalinity is very poorly buffered so =
if site also had high pH and low alkalinity then it would =
be unusually vulnerable to acidification by acid rain. =
<o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=3DMsoNormal> =
Removing 15% of turtles from a watershed year after year until they were =
gone is not realistic. How does one proceed to remove that last few =
percent ? Capturing a constant percentage of the original =
population year after year would require greatly enhanced =
collecting effort with time. A constant decrease over time suggests a =
population that, due to some degradation of the environment such as acid =
rain, was not reproducing. A reproducing population should have =
compensated for removal (a type of predation) by increasing egg count =
per female.<o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p =
class=3DMsoNormal> Some years ago I was on a Lep site =
and one long post related how collecting had been 'conclusively' tied to =
extirpation of a rare Lep. Someone found a glassine envelope, no rare =
Lep on site and jumped to a conclusion which was soon spread widely as =
documented fact. Fortunately someone had the good sense to check =
across the road where an artillery range tended to start fires and =
retain the open habitat and Carex that this Lep needed. The Lep had just =
moved where it could continue to have access to this =
<em>Carex</em>. <o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p =
class=3DMsoNormal> <o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p =
class=3DMsoNormal>Yt, DW<o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p =
class=3DMsoNormal> <o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p =
class=3DMsoNormal> <o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p =
class=3DMsoNormal>----- Original Message ----- <o:p></o:p></p><div><p =
class=3DMsoNormal>From: "Fred Schueler" <<a =
href=3D"mailto:bckcdb@istar.ca">bckcdb@istar.ca</a>><o:p></o:p></p></d=
iv><div><p class=3DMsoNormal>To: <<a =
href=3D"mailto:naturens@chebucto.ns.ca">naturens@chebucto.ns.ca</a>>; =
"John Gilhen" <<a =
href=3D"mailto:GILHENJA@gov.ns.ca">GILHENJA@gov.ns.ca</a>>; =
"Andrew Hebda" <<a =
href=3D"mailto:HEBDAAJ@gov.ns.ca">HEBDAAJ@gov.ns.ca</a>><o:p></o:p></p=
></div><div><p class=3DMsoNormal>Sent: Monday, June 30, 2014 8:07 =
PM<o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=3DMsoNormal>Subject: Re: [NatureNS] =
Wood Turtle: long<o:p></o:p></p></div></div><div><p =
class=3DMsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p></div><p class=3DMsoNormal>> =
On 6/30/2014 6:13 PM, David & Alison Webster wrote:<br>> =
<br>>> I noticed on a post to =
naturens recently that (from the NS Museum<br>>> of NH =
site)--<br>>> "It may seem harmless to keep a turtle as a pet =
for a while, but this is<br>>> not a good idea. Two of the =
province's four turtle species are already<br>>> at risk in Nova =
Scotia. It is likely that removal of turtles by people<br>>> is =
part of the reason, for Wood =
Turtles."<br>>> I expect this =
supposition rests in part on your 1984<br>>> statement (Amphibians =
and Reptiles of Nova Scotia p. 148) that--<br>>> =
"Another problem facing the Wood Turtle is the removal of =
many<br>>> individuals from their habitat by people while on =
fishing trips or<br>>> camping trips" which are then =
subsequently "released in the woods many<br>>> kilometers =
from its natural =
habitat."<br>>> Perhaps you can =
provide some details of the observations on which<br>>> your above =
statement was based.<br>> <br>> * the story is told, though I =
don't have the reference at hand, of a <br>> municipal drinking =
water-shed reserve in Connecticut, where, in the <br>> glorious =
germ-phobia of the 1920s, all random human access was <br>> =
prohibited. A student studied the Wood Turtles there, and found a =
<br>> certain population.<br>> <br>> Then in the =
we'd-never-think-of-pooping-in-the-woods of the 1980s, that <br>> =
reserve was opened to hiking and biking and all, without otherwise =
<br>> changing the habitat, and the Wood Turtles declined at a rate =
of 15%/yr, <br>> until they were gone.<br>> <br>> I believe =
there's numerous places where similar declines due to casual <br>> =
pet-taking have been observed, though this case would seem to be =
<br>> exceptionally well documented.<br>> <br>> fred.<br>> =
------------------------------------------------------------<br>> =
; Frederick W. Schueler =
& Aleta Karstad<br>> Daily Paintings - <a =
href=3D"http://karstaddailypaintings.blogspot.com/">http://karstaddailypa=
intings.blogspot.com/</a><br>> Vulnerable Watersheds - <a =
href=3D"http://vulnerablewaters.blogspot.ca/">http://vulnerablewaters.blo=
gspot.ca/</a><br>> study our books - <a =
href=3D"http://pinicola.ca/books/index.htm">http://pinicola.ca/books/inde=
x.htm</a><br>> =
RR#2 Bishops Mills, Ontario, Canada K0G 1T0<br>> on the =
Smiths Falls Limestone Plain 44* 52'N 75* 42'W<br>> =
(613)258-3107 <bckcdb at istar.ca> <a =
href=3D"http://pinicola.ca/">http://pinicola.ca/</a><br>> =
------------------------------------------------------------<br>> =
<br>> <br>> -----<br>> No virus found in this message.<br>> =
Checked by AVG - www.avg.com<br>> =
Version: 2014.0.4714 / Virus Database: 3986/7771 - Release Date: =
06/30/14<br>><o:p></o:p></p></div></body></html>
------=_NextPart_000_0030_01CF94BE.68BA4A50--
next message in archive
no next message in thread
previous message in archive
previous message in thread
Index of Subjects