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<DIV><F --Apple-Mail-466--617416618 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=US-ASCII; format=flowed; delsp=yes Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit Hi Dave, On 13-Aug-12, at 10:06 PM, David & Alison Webster wrote: > Hi Chris & All. Aug 13, 2012 > Just a few comments about your interesting article. > One should avoid wording (e.g. last line of Standard Deviation) > that implies departures from normal curve frequency distribution > expectations to be indicative of an abnormal condition. (I suspect > the 'normal' of normal (Gaussian) distributions has something to do > with being ar right angles to some frequency distribution surface; > whatever that might mean. I have forgotten most statistics and > kinetics but that is one aspect that I didn't have to forget.) In a geometrical sense "normal" means at 90 degrees from, but that's not how the usage would have made its way into statistics and probability theory. In any event, what's salient here are how great the departures are from a normal distribution, in other words, there are now a much greater proportion in events (indeed, on the order of 25 times more) that are three standard deviation units or more from the mean value than should be the case in a statistically normal distribution. So in this sense, the departure from statistical normality can be seen as an 'abnormal' condition (in the colloquial sense). > In Temperature Anomaly line 1 delete "at" in "...examine at > what.." and in the penultimate paragraph--- global means are more > than five times--- is a vagrant concept. The five times being just > an artifact of the location of zero on the arbitrary Celsius scale. > Convert the temperatures to the Absolute scale to see the difference > a scale makes. No, this really is five times. The annual global mean anomalies during the 1950-1981 time frame were on the order of 0.1, whereas the global mean anomalies between 2006-2011 are on the order of 0.5. So this is a ratio (i.e., 0.5:0.1) that is scale independent. > The figures in the Standard Deviation Anomaly section were I > assume generated by plotting temperatures for the period in question > as deviations from mean temperatures of the reference period > (1951-1980) and expressed in Sd units also of the reference period; > because I see no other way to obtain such figures. Yes, that's correct. > It might help to spell this out. I think the introductory sentences indicate this, but I'll see if I can find a way to making this even clearer. Cheers! Chris > > Yt, Dave Webster, Kentville > ----- Original Message ----- > From: Christopher Majka > To: naturens@chebucto.ns.ca > Sent: Saturday, August 11, 2012 10:26 PM > Subject: [NatureNS] Loaded dice in the climate change casino > > In June of this year over 4,000 daily high temperature records were > broken in the United States. There were 159 record high temperatures > for the month, and 42 all-time temperature highs. July has been even > worse, the hottest month ever recorded in the United States since > comprehensive weather recording began in 1895. July 2012 was the > 328th consecutive month that global temperature exceeded the 20th > century average. In Canada record-setting temperatures were recorded > in July in many parts of the country. Is there a way we can > determine if the extreme weather events we have been witnessing are > indicative of a changing climate, or are we simply witnessing > variable weather? > > That's precisely what NASA's James Hansen and his colleagues have > done in a strikingly elegant publication entitled Perception of > climate change. Anyone who was alive and paying attention before > 1981 can perceive the difference in climate that has occurred, and > the analysis of large datasets of environmental information clearly > and unequivocally confirm this change. To read more see my recent > article for Rabble: > > Loaded dice in the climate change casino > http://rabble.ca/blogs/bloggers/christophermajka/2012/08/loaded-dice-climate-change-casino > > Best wishes, > > Christopher Majka > > > Christopher Majka - columnist, Rabble.ca > Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada > Email: c.majka@ns.sympatico.ca > http://rabble.ca/blog/26142 > "The significant problems of our time cannot be solved by the same > level of thinking that created them." - Albert Einstein > > > > > > No virus found in this message. > Checked by AVG - www.avg.com > Version: 2012.0.2197 / Virus Database: 2437/5185 - Release Date: > 08/07/12 > Christopher Majka - columnist, Rabble.ca Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada Email: c.majka@ns.sympatico.ca http://rabble.ca/blog/26142 "The significant problems of our time cannot be solved by the same level of thinking that created them." - Albert Einstein --Apple-Mail-466--617416618 Content-Type: text/html; charset=US-ASCII Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable <html><body style=3D"word-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; = -webkit-line-break: after-white-space; ">Hi Dave,<div><br><div><div>On = 13-Aug-12, at 10:06 PM, David & Alison Webster wrote:</div><br = class=3D"Apple-interchange-newline"><blockquote type=3D"cite"><span = class=3D"Apple-style-span" style=3D"border-collapse: separate; color: = rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-style: normal; = font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; = line-height: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: -webkit-auto; text-indent: = 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: = 0px; -webkit-border-horizontal-spacing: 0px; = -webkit-border-vertical-spacing: 0px; = -webkit-text-decorations-in-effect: none; -webkit-text-size-adjust: = auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; font-size: medium; "><div = bgcolor=3D"#ffffff" style=3D"word-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: = space; -webkit-line-break: after-white-space; "><div><font size=3D"2">Hi = Chris & = All. &nbs= p; Aug 13, 2012</font></div><div><font = size=3D"2"> Just a few comments about your interesting = article.</font></div><div><font size=3D"2"> One should = avoid wording (e.g. last line of Standard Deviation) that implies = departures from normal curve frequency distribution = expectations to be indicative of an abnormal condition. (I suspect = the 'normal' of normal (Gaussian) distributions has something to do with = being ar right angles to some frequency distribution surface; = whatever that might mean. I have forgotten most statistics and kinetics = but that is one aspect that I didn't have to = forget.)</font></div></div></span></blockquote><div><br></div><div>In a = geometrical sense "normal" means at 90 degrees from, but that's not how = the usage would have made its way into statistics and probability = theory. In any event, what's salient here are how great the departures = are from a normal distribution, in other words, there are now a much = greater proportion in events (indeed, on the order of 25 times more) = that are three standard deviation units or more from the mean value than = should be the case in a statistically normal distribution. So in this = sense, the departure from statistical normality can be seen as an = 'abnormal' condition (in the colloquial sense).</div><br><blockquote = type=3D"cite"><span class=3D"Apple-style-span" style=3D"border-collapse: = separate; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: 'Times New Roman'; = font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; = letter-spacing: normal; line-height: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: = -webkit-auto; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: = normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-border-horizontal-spacing: = 0px; -webkit-border-vertical-spacing: 0px; = -webkit-text-decorations-in-effect: none; -webkit-text-size-adjust: = auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; font-size: medium; "><div = bgcolor=3D"#ffffff" style=3D"word-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: = space; -webkit-line-break: after-white-space; "><div><font = size=3D"2"> In Temperature Anomaly line 1 delete "at" = in "...examine at what.." and in the penultimate paragraph--- global = means are more than five times--- is a vagrant concept. The five = times being just an artifact of the location of zero on = the arbitrary Celsius scale. Convert the temperatures to the = Absolute scale to see the difference a scale = makes.</font></div></div></span></blockquote><div><br></div><div>No, = this really is five times. The annual global mean anomalies during the = 1950-1981 time frame were on the order of 0.1, whereas the global mean = anomalies between 2006-2011 are on the order of 0.5. So this is a ratio = (i.e., 0.5:0.1) that is scale independent.</div><br><blockquote = type=3D"cite"><span class=3D"Apple-style-span" style=3D"border-collapse: = separate; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: 'Times New Roman'; = font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; = letter-spacing: normal; line-height: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: = -webkit-auto; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: = normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-border-horizontal-spacing: = 0px; -webkit-border-vertical-spacing: 0px; = -webkit-text-decorations-in-effect: none; -webkit-text-size-adjust: = auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; font-size: medium; "><div = bgcolor=3D"#ffffff" style=3D"word-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: = space; -webkit-line-break: after-white-space; "><div><font = size=3D"2"> The figures in the Standard = Deviation Anomaly section were I assume generated by plotting = temperatures for the period in question as deviations from mean = temperatures of the reference period (1951-1980) and expressed in Sd = units also of the reference period; because I see no other way to obtain = such figures. = </font></div></div></span></blockquote><div><br></div><div>Yes, that's = correct.</div><br><blockquote type=3D"cite"><span = class=3D"Apple-style-span" style=3D"border-collapse: separate; color: = rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-style: normal; = font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; = line-height: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: -webkit-auto; text-indent: = 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: = 0px; -webkit-border-horizontal-spacing: 0px; = -webkit-border-vertical-spacing: 0px; = -webkit-text-decorations-in-effect: none; -webkit-text-size-adjust: = auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; font-size: medium; "><div = bgcolor=3D"#ffffff" style=3D"word-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: = space; -webkit-line-break: after-white-space; "><div><font size=3D"2">It = might help to spell this = out.</font></div></div></span></blockquote><div><br></div><div>I think = the introductory sentences indicate this, but I'll see if I can find a = way to making this even = clearer.</div><div><br></div><div>Cheers!</div><div><br></div><div>Chris</= div><br><blockquote type=3D"cite"><span class=3D"Apple-style-span" = style=3D"border-collapse: separate; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: = 'Times New Roman'; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; = font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: normal; = orphans: 2; text-align: -webkit-auto; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: = none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; = -webkit-border-horizontal-spacing: 0px; -webkit-border-vertical-spacing: = 0px; -webkit-text-decorations-in-effect: none; -webkit-text-size-adjust: = auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; font-size: medium; "><div = bgcolor=3D"#ffffff" style=3D"word-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: = space; -webkit-line-break: after-white-space; "><div><font = size=3D"2"></font> </div><div><font size=3D"2">Yt, Dave Webster, = Kentville</font></div><blockquote dir=3D"ltr" style=3D"border-left-color: = rgb(0, 0, 0); border-left-width: 2px; border-left-style: solid; = padding-left: 5px; padding-right: 0px; margin-left: 5px; margin-right: = 0px; "><div style=3D"font: normal normal normal 10pt/normal arial; = ">----- Original Message -----</div><div style=3D"font: normal normal = normal 10pt/normal arial; background-image: initial; = background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; = background-clip: initial; background-color: rgb(228, 228, 228); = background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial = initial; "><b>From:</b><span = class=3D"Apple-converted-space"> </span><a = title=3D"c.majka@ns.sympatico.ca" = href=3D"mailto:c.majka@ns.sympatico.ca">Christopher Majka</a></div><div = style=3D"font: normal normal normal 10pt/normal arial; "><b>To:</b><span = class=3D"Apple-converted-space"> </span><a = title=3D"naturens@chebucto.ns.ca" = href=3D"mailto:naturens@chebucto.ns.ca">naturens@chebucto.ns.ca</a></div><= div style=3D"font: normal normal normal 10pt/normal arial; = "><b>Sent:</b><span class=3D"Apple-converted-space"> </span>Saturday,= August 11, 2012 10:26 PM</div><div style=3D"font: normal normal normal = 10pt/normal arial; "><b>Subject:</b><span = class=3D"Apple-converted-space"> </span>[NatureNS] Loaded dice in = the climate change casino</div><div><font size=3D"2"></font><font = size=3D"2"></font><br></div><div>In June of this year over 4,000 daily = high temperature records were broken in the United States. There were = 159 record high temperatures for the month, and 42 all-time temperature = highs. July has been even worse, the hottest month ever recorded in the = United States since comprehensive weather recording began in 1895. July = 2012 was the 328th consecutive month that global temperature exceeded = the 20th century average. In Canada record-setting temperatures were = recorded in July in many parts of the country. Is there a way we = can determine if the extreme weather events we have been witnessing are = indicative of a changing climate, or are we simply witnessing variable = weather?</div><div><br></div><div>That's precisely what NASA's James = Hansen and his colleagues have done in a strikingly elegant = publication entitled<span = class=3D"Apple-converted-space"> </span><i>Perception of climate = change</i>. Anyone who was alive and paying attention before 1981 = can perceive the difference in climate that has occurred, and the = analysis of large datasets of environmental information clearly and = unequivocally confirm this change. To read more see my recent article = for Rabble:</div><div><br></div><div><span class=3D"Apple-tab-span" = style=3D"white-space: pre; "></span><span class=3D"Apple-tab-span" = style=3D"white-space: pre; "><b>Loaded dice in the climate change = casino</b></span></div><div><span class=3D"Apple-tab-span" = style=3D"white-space: pre; "><a = href=3D"http://rabble.ca/blogs/bloggers/christophermajka/2012/08/loaded-di= ce-climate-change-casino">http://rabble.ca/blogs/bloggers/christophermajka= /2012/08/loaded-dice-climate-change-casino</a></span></div><div><br></div>= <div>Best wishes,</div><div><br></div><div>Christopher = Majka</div><br><br><div apple-content-edited=3D"true"><span = class=3D"Apple-style-span" style=3D"widows: 2; text-transform: none; = text-indent: 0px; border-collapse: separate; font: normal normal normal = medium/normal 'Times New Roman'; white-space: normal; orphans: 2; = letter-spacing: normal; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); word-spacing: 0px; = -webkit-border-horizontal-spacing: 0px; -webkit-border-vertical-spacing: = 0px; -webkit-text-decorations-in-effect: none; -webkit-text-size-adjust: = auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; "><div style=3D"word-wrap: = break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; -webkit-line-break: = after-white-space; "><span class=3D"Apple-style-span" style=3D"widows: = 2; text-transform: none; text-indent: 0px; border-collapse: separate; = font: normal normal normal medium/normal 'Times New Roman'; white-space: = normal; orphans: 2; letter-spacing: normal; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); = word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-border-horizontal-spacing: 0px; = -webkit-border-vertical-spacing: 0px; = -webkit-text-decorations-in-effect: none; -webkit-text-size-adjust: = auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; "><div style=3D"word-wrap: = break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; -webkit-line-break: = after-white-space; "><span class=3D"Apple-style-span" style=3D"widows: = 2; text-transform: none; text-indent: 0px; border-collapse: separate; = font: normal normal normal medium/normal 'Times New Roman'; white-space: = normal; orphans: 2; letter-spacing: normal; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); = word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-border-horizontal-spacing: 0px; = -webkit-border-vertical-spacing: 0px; = -webkit-text-decorations-in-effect: none; -webkit-text-size-adjust: = auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; "><div style=3D"word-wrap: = break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; -webkit-line-break: = after-white-space; "><span class=3D"Apple-style-span" style=3D"widows: = 2; text-transform: none; text-indent: 0px; border-collapse: separate; = font: normal normal normal 14px/normal 'Times New Roman'; white-space: = normal; orphans: 2; letter-spacing: normal; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); = word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-border-horizontal-spacing: 0px; = -webkit-border-vertical-spacing: 0px; = -webkit-text-decorations-in-effect: none; -webkit-text-size-adjust: = auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; "><div style=3D"word-wrap: = break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; -webkit-line-break: = after-white-space; "><span class=3D"Apple-style-span" style=3D"widows: = 2; text-transform: none; text-indent: 0px; border-collapse: separate; = font: normal normal normal 14px/normal 'Times New Roman'; white-space: = normal; orphans: 2; letter-spacing: normal; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); = word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-border-horizontal-spacing: 0px; = -webkit-border-vertical-spacing: 0px; = -webkit-text-decorations-in-effect: none; -webkit-text-size-adjust: = auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; "><div style=3D"word-wrap: = break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; -webkit-line-break: = after-white-space; "><div><div style=3D"word-wrap: break-word; = -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; -webkit-line-break: after-white-space; = "><div><div>Christopher Majka - columnist, Rabble.ca</div><div>Halifax, = Nova Scotia, Canada</div><div>Email:<span = class=3D"Apple-converted-space"> </span><a = href=3D"mailto:c.majka@ns.sympatico.ca">c.majka@ns.sympatico.ca</a></div><= div><a = href=3D"http://rabble.ca/blog/26142">http://rabble.ca/blog/26142</a></div>= <div><div><p><i>"The significant problems of our time cannot be solved = by the same level of thinking that created them."</i><span = class=3D"Apple-converted-space"> </span>- Albert = Einstein</p></div></div><div><br></div><div><i></i></div></div></div></div= ></div></span></div></span></div></span></div></span><br = class=3D"Apple-interchange-newline"></div></span><br = class=3D"Apple-interchange-newline"></div><br><a></a><p align=3D"left" = color=3D"#000000" avgcert??=3D"">No virus found in this = message.<br>Checked by AVG -<span = class=3D"Apple-converted-space"> </span><a = href=3D"http://www.avg.com">www.avg.com</a><br>Version: 2012.0.2197 / = Virus Database: 2437/5185 - Release Date: = 08/07/12</p></blockquote></div></span></blockquote></div><br></div><br><br= ><div apple-content-edited=3D"true"> <span class=3D"Apple-style-span" = style=3D"border-collapse: separate; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: = 'Times New Roman'; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; = font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: normal; = orphans: 2; text-align: -webkit-auto; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: = none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; = -webkit-border-horizontal-spacing: 0px; -webkit-border-vertical-spacing: = 0px; -webkit-text-decorations-in-effect: none; -webkit-text-size-adjust: = auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; font-size: medium; "><div = style=3D"word-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; = -webkit-line-break: after-white-space; "><span class=3D"Apple-style-span" = style=3D"border-collapse: separate; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: = 'Times New Roman'; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; = font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: normal; = orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; = widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-border-horizontal-spacing: 0px; = -webkit-border-vertical-spacing: 0px; = -webkit-text-decorations-in-effect: none; -webkit-text-size-adjust: = auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; font-size: medium; "><div = style=3D"word-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; = -webkit-line-break: after-white-space; "><span class=3D"Apple-style-span" = style=3D"border-collapse: separate; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: = 'Times New Roman'; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant: = normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: = normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: = normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-border-horizontal-spacing: = 0px; -webkit-border-vertical-spacing: 0px; = -webkit-text-decorations-in-effect: none; -webkit-text-size-adjust: = auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; "><div style=3D"word-wrap: = break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; -webkit-line-break: = after-white-space; "><span class=3D"Apple-style-span" = style=3D"border-collapse: separate; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: = 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: = normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: = normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: = normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-border-horizontal-spacing: = 0px; -webkit-border-vertical-spacing: 0px; = -webkit-text-decorations-in-effect: none; -webkit-text-size-adjust: = auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; "><div style=3D"word-wrap: = break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; -webkit-line-break: = after-white-space; "><span class=3D"Apple-style-span" = style=3D"border-collapse: separate; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: = 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: = normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: = normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: = normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-border-horizontal-spacing: = 0px; -webkit-border-vertical-spacing: 0px; = -webkit-text-decorations-in-effect: none; -webkit-text-size-adjust: = auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; "><div style=3D"word-wrap: = break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; -webkit-line-break: = after-white-space; "><div><div style=3D"word-wrap: break-word; = -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; -webkit-line-break: after-white-space; = "><div><div>Christopher Majka - columnist, Rabble.ca</div><div>Halifax, = Nova Scotia, Canada</div><div>Email: <a = href=3D"mailto:c.majka@ns.sympatico.ca">c.majka@ns.sympatico.ca</a></div><= div><a = href=3D"http://rabble.ca/blog/26142">http://rabble.ca/blog/26142</a></div>= <div><div><p align=3D""><i>"The significant problems of our time cannot = be solved by the same level of thinking that created them."</i><span = class=3D"Apple-converted-space"> </span>- Albert = Einstein</p></div></div><div><br></div><div><i></i></div></div></div></div= ></div></span></div></span></div></span></div></span><br = class=3D"Apple-interchange-newline"></div></span><br = class=3D"Apple-interchange-newline"> </div><br></body></html>= --Apple-Mail-466--617416618--
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