[NatureNS] cause of unusual winter ?

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Date: Thu, 22 Mar 2012 20:18:36 -0300
From: Bruce Stevens <m.bruce.stevens@gmail.com>
To: naturens@chebucto.ns.ca
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The jet stream the past few days was a huge curve which was perfectly&lt;br&
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I think the best thing I can contribute is to say that climate is the
integration of weather over time. It is therefore difficult, if not
impossible, to make climatic inferrences from only recent change(s).
Rather, trends in climatic signals that reveal themselves over years or
decades, or longer, lead to understanding what is happening climatically,
and ultimately to forecast. So when asked about this particularly warm
winter in our region, I would say that at this point it is very unlikely
attributed definitively to either statistical variation or trend.

However, there is an oceanic oscillation that we experience called the
North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) that affects our region more directly than
El Nino/La Nina events generally do:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Atlantic_oscillation

As to Richard's comment about ice cap melt and effects on North Atlantic
salinity circulation (aka the North Atlantic Conveyor), this is one of the
theories behind the cause of the Younger Dryas cold event of ca. 12000
years ago, and loosely the plot driver in the Hollywood disaster movie The
Day After Tomorrow: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Younger_Dryas. If anyone
would like to read more about this theory you could check out the work of
Wallace Broecker who has published prolifically on this topic for decades.

Bruce


-- 
Bruce Stevens
Maryvale, NS

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I think the best thing I can contribute is to say that climate is the integ=
ration of weather over time. It is therefore difficult, if not impossible, =
to make climatic inferrences from only recent change(s). Rather, trends in =
climatic signals that reveal themselves over years or decades, or longer, l=
ead to understanding what is happening climatically, and ultimately to fore=
cast. So when asked about this particularly warm winter in our region, I wo=
uld say that at this point it is very unlikely attributed definitively to e=
ither statistical variation or trend.<br>
<br>However, there is an oceanic oscillation that we experience called the =
North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) that affects our region more directly than=
 El Nino/La Nina events generally do: <a href=3D"http://en.wikipedia.org/wi=
ki/North_Atlantic_oscillation">http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Atlantic_=
oscillation</a><br>
<br>As to Richard&#39;s comment about ice cap melt and effects on North Atl=
antic salinity circulation (aka the North Atlantic Conveyor), this is one o=
f the theories behind the cause of the Younger Dryas cold event of ca. 1200=
0 years ago, and loosely the plot driver in the Hollywood disaster movie Th=
e Day After Tomorrow: <a href=3D"http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Younger_Dryas=
">http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Younger_Dryas</a>. If anyone would like to r=
ead more about this theory you could check out the work of Wallace Broecker=
 who has published prolifically on this topic for decades.<br>
<br>Bruce<br><br clear=3D"all"><br>-- <br>Bruce Stevens<br>Maryvale, NS<br>

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