[NatureNS] Climate change "debate"

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Date: Thu, 23 Nov 2006 13:35:23 -0400
From: "Bruce Stevens" <m.bruce.stevens@gmail.com>
To: naturens@chebucto.ns.ca
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All:

As a student of climate change, paleoclimate and climate modelling, I feel I
should chime in after reading posts from Dave, Steve and Chris. I would like
to present the following points:

1) The term "global warming" is too specific a term to use when discussing
anthropogenic (man-made) influence on the global climate system. "Climate
change" is a more appropriate title as it encompasses the entire array of
issues which includes global warming, sea-level increase, polar ice melt,
and an increase in the severity and frequency of atmospheric events to name
a few.

2) Peer-reviewed journals are currently the best way to contribute to any
field of science. When an article is submitted to a journal, the editor
generally makes a summary decision about whether or not the article is of
appropriate scope and merit for their readers, then passes it to 2 or more
reviewers or rejects it outright. These reviewers are generally anonymous,
and have enormous impact on the success of the article. If an article
survives to be published, it has undoubtedly gone through several revisions.

3) Top tier peer-reviewed journals are generally not available for free
access. This makes it difficult for the public to assimilate first-hand
knowledge from these journals. Instead, popular media outlets such as
television, books and magazines present distilled versions of these
findings. Very often these come with spin.

4) The pereceived battle between the media and the scientific community has
happened on countless occasions. If there is consensus among scientists
(never unanimity!) over a certain issue that goes against some political
status quo, it is sufficient to create the illusion of debate to cast doubt
on the facts. A perfect example of this is the acid rain "debate". John Smol
is a Canadian paleolymnologist (a scientist who uses sediment deposits from
lake bottoms to infer past climatic events). His repeated findings showed
that pH levels in lakes were increasing in acidity, and this acidity was due
to precipitation that contained sulfur compounds produced by industry. In
one study, Smol showed that of all the lakes surveyed (in Vermont of New
Hampshire I believe) only one lake did not show elevated and increasing
concentrations of acidity. A media story was created illustrating that there
was no acid rain problem, because John Smol and his team found no increase
in pH in that one lake. The Reagan administration employed media tactics
that very much resemble the pattern of denial seen in climate change.

5) The "hockey stick" that brought Michael Mann to the forefront of climate
change is a multiproxy reconstruction of past temperature [1]. Since
there are hardly any direct, instrumental meterological data before 1900,
indirect means of inferring past climate, or proxy data, must be used. There
are many types of proxy record, including ice cores, boreholes, tree-rings
and lake sediments to name a few. The hockey stick gets its name from its
gradual cooling from year 1000 to 1700 (the "shaft"), and abrupt warming
from 1700 to 2000 (the "blade"). This multiproxy reconstruction has been all
but completely discredited, but not by those who deny climate change. There
were fundamental problems with their reconstruction method that rendered
their results unreliable.

[1] Mann, M. E., R. S. Bradley and M. K. Hughes (1999), Northern Hemisphere
temperatures during the last millennium: inferrences, uncertainties, and
limitations, *Geophysical Research Letters, **26*, 759-762.

6) I urge caution at taking anything said at www.realclimate.org at face
value. This is a completely unmoderated forum of climate change discussion
in which anybody can state their opinions as gospel. Many of the top
scientists worldwide (as well as non-scientists!) involved in various
aspects of climate change frequent this forum and express opinions that may
be unsubstantiated and unproven.

7) There IS debate within the scientific community about climate change.
However, this debate is almost entirely restricted to how climate change is
manifesting itself, what causes climate change, to what degree climate will
change, where change will occur first, etc. The problem with viewing climate
change as a "future" problem that "may" cause problems down the road, is
that we may already have started down the road. One of the most important
tasks is to establish a precedent for historical levels of temperature and
greenhouse gas concentrations so we have a baseline for what is normal. This
understanding is far from complete.

8) If anyone is interested in reading about bridging the gap between
scientific investigation of climate change and actually implementing policy,
the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was created to address
this issue. Their information is available online at http://www.ipcc.ch/.

I hope this didn't sound too much like a rant. It is important that we all
form our own ideas about climate change from legitimate sources.

Bruce Stevens

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<div>All:</div>
<div>&nbsp;</div>
<div>As a student of climate change, paleoclimate and climate modelling, I =
feel I should chime in after reading posts from Dave, Steve and Chris. I wo=
uld like to present the following points:</div>
<div>&nbsp;</div>
<div>1) The term &quot;global warming&quot; is too specific a term to use w=
hen discussing anthropogenic (man-made) influence on the global climate sys=
tem. &quot;Climate change&quot; is a more appropriate title as it encompass=
es the entire array of issues which includes global warming, sea-level incr=
ease, polar ice melt, and an increase in the severity and frequency of atmo=
spheric events to name a few.
</div>
<div>&nbsp;</div>
<div>2) Peer-reviewed journals are currently the best way to contribute to =
any field of science. When an article is submitted to a journal, the editor=
 generally makes a summary decision about whether or not the article is of =
appropriate scope and merit for their readers, then passes it to 2 or more =
reviewers or rejects it outright. These reviewers are generally anonymous, =
and have enormous impact on the success of the article. If an article survi=
ves to be published, it has undoubtedly gone through several revisions.
</div>
<div>&nbsp;</div>
<div>3) Top tier peer-reviewed journals are generally not available for fre=
e access. This makes it difficult for the public to assimilate first-hand k=
nowledge from these journals. Instead, popular media outlets such as televi=
sion, books and magazines present distilled versions of these findings. Ver=
y often these come with spin.
</div>
<div>&nbsp;</div>
<div>4) The pereceived battle between the media and the scientific communit=
y has happened on countless occasions. If there is consensus among scientis=
ts (never una