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I have seen Monarchs emerging from chrysalids as late as Thanksgiving Weekend in Bear River. The frost was heavy on the milkweed, and the butterflies were having a difficult time to warm up, but in the end they did warm up and sail off westward. To throw a monkey wrench in the picture, Dr. Urquhart from the University of Toronto, spent a lifetime studying the Monarchs and finally discovered that the ones he was tagging in Ontario and Quebec were going SW to Mexico. I don't know that he was ever successful in obtaining many or any volunteers from this area to determine where our Monarchs migrate in the fall. Recently I heard or have read that there is another wintering ground in Cuba, and our butterflies would be more likely to end up there, rather than make the extra long journey to Mexico. Wish I could get to Bear River as I expect there are a lot there this year. JET
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