Y2K: An Overview
Final Update

by
Andrew D. Wright
Beacon Correspondent

Updated: December 1999

 

          Much has been made of the Year 2000 problem over the last eighteen months. It is now firmly entrenched in the public consciousness as a bizarre mixture of fear of technological failure, survivalist dogma and apocalyptic ravings. Various agenda-driven groups have seized the notion of a technological glitch as a vindication of their fringe beliefs and have trumpeted out warnings like a hundred Chicken Littles that the sky will fall.

          Well, it won't.

The Real Problem

          The actual and real Y2K problem, for those who have missed it, is that some hardware and software, particularly any from years ago when memory and disk space were at a premium almost hard to imagine today, uses two digit dates to represent the year: 75 is 1975; 82 is 1982; and 00 is 1900, not 2000. The architects of this hardware and software had no idea that any of it would still be in use at the coming turn of the century. However in many cases their work was added to and built upon, layer after layer over the years, giving it a life much longer than any of them would have dreamed. Such embedded systems are the source of the Y2K problem. In addition, the year 2000 has something that the year 1900 did not: a February 29th. Years ending in 00 are leap years only once every 400 years so anything that thinks it is 1900 will run into an unexpected extra day at the end of February.

Money and Power Y2K Compliant

          Over the past year, a technological mobilization of vast proportions has occurred and the core parts of our society's structure have been made Y2K compliant. In other words, these systems will handle the rollover just fine, thank you. This includes the The Canadian Bankers Association, representing all Canadian chartered banks, which has issued a guarantee that all funds and financial records held by them will be unaffected by the Y2K bug. Here in Nova Scotia, NS Power was the North American leader in testing their equipment, successfully running their generator plants set to year 2000 dates for extended periods. In addition, NS Power will have a six week supply of fuel onhand for January 1st 2000.

Nova Scotia Government

          According to their webpage on Essential and Mission Critical services, the Nova Scotia provincial government has (at the time of this writing) rendered all Mission Critical and Essential services compliant with the sole exception of one project at one school board. This one project, falling under the School Board Regulatory and Advisory Service, has a completion date of December 23, 1999. The province claims that making provincial systems Y2K compliant has cost some $66.2 million.

Halifax Municipality

          The Halifax Regional Municipality (HRM) considers that its Y2K work has been completed as well. While their Y2K website has not been recently updated, it remains a pretty complete picture of the municipality's efforts.

          Of course, no matter how rigorous a testing program is run by any organization, there always exists the possibility that some little thing has been missed. This is why you should be aware of the problem in the first place and why you should keep your eyes open.

What Should You Do?

          So what can you as an individual do? The expert advice remains unchanged. While failure of basic services, particularly any extended failures are now considered highly unlikely in Nova Scotia, no responsible source of information is discounting the notion entirely and most are likening the situation to preparing for a winter storm: if it doesn't show up or turns out to be less than expected, great, but if not then the basic preparations listed below will help you when it counts the most.
 

  • Find out if your computer and software are Y2K compliant, especially if you are using it for any kind of accounting or records keeping. It is virtually certain that you will have some kind of Y2K compliance problem, either in programs, operating system or the hardware itself. This includes people who have bought brand new computers. Every version of Microsoft Windows, up to and including Windows 98 original release, requires some kind of Y2K related fix, for example. You can find all the information you need in the Beacon Y2K section on how to test and fix your Y2K compliancy problems.

    Non Y2K compliant computers and software in the home and in small businesses are likely to be the most widespread computer-related Y2K problem. It is your responsibility to make sure your own systems are okay.
     

  • Have some basic supplies on hand. There are many references on the web for detailed lists of what you should have in case of any emergency, but you should include: a battery powered radio and spare batteries, water and non-perishable food (enough for up to a week per person), a camping stove or other non-electrical dependent method of cooking food and boiling water, an oil lamp or other non-electrical dependent light source, blankets, warm clothing and a basic first aid kit. Stock any necessary medications you might require. It is likely you will not need all this, but it is good to have it around in any case. If nothing untoward happens, you can use it the next time you go camping.
     

  • Get to know your neighbours. In a worst-case scenario, you'll be working together. It's best to find out ahead of time what assets or issues there are.
     

  • Don't leave things to the last minute!
     

  • Above all else, in case of trouble your reason is your strongest ally. Keep your head.

So What's Going To Happen?

          As the new year draws closer, it is becoming apparent that the biggest part of the Y2K problem may not be technological in nature, but psychological. It is entirely possible that the technological problem may cause some type of minor service interruption or disrupt supply chains, but there are always other ways of doing things or other supply routes. Maybe the coffee will come from Brazil for two weeks instead of Colombia or maybe a subscription renewal notice comes billing you for 100 years worth of magazines. Maybe even somehow, somewhere, someone gets killed by a Y2K related technological trap. The biggest Y2K problem is much more likely to be caused by fear than by any technological failure.

          Suppose everyone decides to put away a week's water and they all do it December 31? The increased water flow through the pipes may discolor the water and create panic that there will be a shortage. Last minute grocery hoarding can empty store shelves. Everyone in the country trying to withdraw all their money from the bank can cause chaos. There is the perception in the minds of some that come midnight on December 31 we'll hear the sounds of turbines groaning to a standstill and our society will jerk to a halt, stopped in its tracks by bad calendars. Should I pack a month's food in my remote farmhouse? Two? Will nails still hold wood together? Wheels turn?

          The truth is it will be an interesting weekend. It is likely to the point of being a virtual certainty that any disruptions in basic services, should they occur at all, will be of short duration. Remember that problems are made to be solved.

 

You may direct comments or suggestions about this feature to:

Andrew D. Wright,  au141@chebucto.ns.ca

 

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