Y2K: An Overview Final Update
by
Andrew D. Wright
Beacon Correspondent
Updated: December 1999
Much has been made of the Year 2000 problem over the last eighteen
months. It is now firmly entrenched in the public consciousness as a
bizarre mixture of fear of technological failure, survivalist dogma and
apocalyptic ravings. Various agenda-driven groups have seized the notion
of a technological glitch as a vindication of their fringe beliefs and
have trumpeted out warnings like a hundred Chicken Littles that the sky
will fall.
Well, it won't.
The Real Problem
The actual and real Y2K problem, for those who have missed it, is that
some hardware and software, particularly any
from years ago when memory and disk space were at a premium almost hard
to imagine today, uses two digit dates to
represent the year: 75 is 1975; 82 is 1982; and 00 is 1900, not 2000. The
architects of this hardware and software had no
idea that any of it would still be in use at the coming turn of the
century. However in many cases their work was added to
and built upon, layer after layer over the years, giving it a life much
longer than any of them would have dreamed. Such
embedded systems are the source of the Y2K problem. In addition, the year
2000 has something that the year 1900 did not: a February 29th. Years
ending in 00 are leap years only once every 400 years so anything that
thinks it is 1900 will run into an unexpected extra day at the end of
February.
Money and Power Y2K Compliant
Over the past year, a technological mobilization of vast proportions has
occurred and the core parts of our society's
structure have been made Y2K compliant. In other words, these systems
will handle the rollover just fine, thank you. This
includes the The Canadian Bankers Association, representing all Canadian
chartered banks, which has issued a
guarantee that all funds and financial
records held by them will be unaffected by the Y2K bug. Here in Nova
Scotia, NS Power was the
North American leader in testing their equipment, successfully running
their generator plants set to year 2000 dates for
extended periods. In addition, NS Power will have a six week supply of
fuel onhand for January 1st 2000.
Nova Scotia Government
According to their webpage
on Essential and Mission Critical services, the Nova Scotia provincial
government has
(at the time of this writing) rendered all Mission Critical and Essential
services compliant with the sole exception of one project at one school
board. This one project, falling under the School Board Regulatory and
Advisory Service, has a completion date of December 23, 1999. The
province claims that making provincial systems Y2K compliant has cost
some $66.2 million.
Halifax Municipality
The Halifax Regional Municipality (HRM) considers that its Y2K work has
been completed as well. While their
Y2K website has not
been recently updated, it remains a pretty
complete picture of the municipality's efforts.
Of course, no matter how rigorous a testing program is run by any
organization, there always exists the possibility that some little thing
has been missed. This is why you should be aware of the problem in the
first place and why you should keep your eyes open.
What Should You Do?
So what can you as an individual do? The expert advice remains unchanged.
While failure of basic services, particularly any extended
failures are now considered highly unlikely in Nova Scotia, no
responsible source of information
is discounting the notion entirely and most are likening the situation to
preparing for a winter storm: if it doesn't show up or turns out to be
less than expected, great,
but if not then the basic preparations listed below will help you when it
counts the most.
So What's Going To Happen?
As the new year draws closer, it is becoming apparent
that the biggest part of the Y2K problem may not be technological
in nature, but psychological. It is entirely possible that the
technological problem may cause some type of minor service interruption
or disrupt supply chains, but there are always other ways of doing things or
other supply routes. Maybe the coffee will come from Brazil for
two weeks instead of Colombia or maybe a subscription renewal notice comes
billing you for 100 years worth of
magazines. Maybe even somehow, somewhere, someone gets killed by
a Y2K related technological trap. The biggest Y2K problem
is much more likely to be caused by fear than by any technological
failure.
Suppose everyone decides to put away a week's water and they all
do it December 31? The increased water flow through the pipes may
discolor the water and create panic that there will be a shortage.
Last minute grocery hoarding can empty store shelves. Everyone in the
country trying to withdraw all their money from the bank can cause
chaos. There is the perception in the minds of some that come midnight
on December 31 we'll hear the sounds of turbines groaning to a standstill and
our society will jerk to a halt, stopped in its tracks by bad calendars.
Should I pack a month's food in my remote farmhouse? Two? Will nails
still hold wood together? Wheels turn?
The truth is it will be an interesting weekend.
It is likely to the point of being a virtual certainty that any
disruptions in basic services, should they occur at all, will be of
short duration. Remember that problems are made to be solved.
You may direct comments or suggestions about this
feature to:
Andrew D. Wright, au141@chebucto.ns.ca
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