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We have also established that the Ontario models (Dillon et al) are not, with exceptions, suitable for TP concentrations over 20 µg/l; for higher trophic ranges, the OECD regressions along with those derived from the OECD research are more applicable. This is probably because the OECD lakes cover a wide trophic range, from ultraoligotrophy to hypereutrophy!
In addition, Mandaville has been incorporating other regressions published in the latest international limnological journals as deemed necessary (lakescienceoutlook.com).
As opportunity presents itself, we are continuing our intensive field sampling, generally at storm sewer outfalls (inclusive of open channels), in order to expand the data base for post-development scenarios and revise the predictive models, if needed!
With respect to areas served by septic systems, our revised models did not incorporate the same assumptions as in Hart et al (1978) and Scott et al (2003) where the authors assumed 50% septic-derived phosphorus retention in Halifax/Wolfville soils. In the Scott et al (2003) report where Mandaville was a co-author, there was an inadvertent omission made by not noting this down (and Mandaville regrets that). Our export coefficients in such areas include all potential sources of phosphorus inputs incorporated into the 50% export assumption; it actually varied from 50% in some watersheds based on local info.
Further, as I
upgrade the models as needed, I am applying a much higher soil retention
of phosphorus in areas served with contour beds in comparison with
areas served with area beds. This was as a result of intense
discussions over the years with the engineering developer of contour beds, David Pask MEng PEng.
As a worst case scenario, 0% retention may be assumed for the long term as per the Province of Ontario's guidelines, "Protecting Water Quality in Inland Lakes on Ontario’s Precambrian Shield" (2010).
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