[NatureNS] Covid lock down

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&gt;&gt; are we now heading to an 80% overall infection anyway 
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On May 1, 2020, at 7:48 AM, Shouty McShoutsalot <desolatechair@gmail.com<ma=
ilto:desolatechair@gmail.com>> wrote:

[1] We don=92t need to test the asymptomatic, or a random sample.

[2] As long as we identify and protect those at risk (visible symptoms/elde=
rly/pre existing medical issues) the rest of the population can go about it=
s business.

[3] Herd immunity will take care of the virus, as it=92s done for millions =
of years.

Jamie

[3] er, no, there is no guarantee that this particular coronovirus will lea=
ve recovered infectees immune, according to my listening nightly to infecti=
ous disease experts on CTV, CNN, CBC.   Or, if there is some residual immun=
ity, how long that will persist (only a few months perhaps, as with some ot=
her viruses).  The infectious diseases doc on air last night said there are=
 preliminary positive reports from China (but a totalitarian state and they=
=92ve lied before), a report strangely published in some blog and not peer =
reviewed, and one other oddity, I forget:  no dependable info, he said.  Yo=
u can=92t have 'herd immunity' without individual immunity.  Long-term herd=
 immunity is fabulous for diseases like measles IF you get your new kids ge=
t vaccinated =97 if not, recall the recent measles scourge in a NY jewish e=
nclave.  But it doesn=92t necessarily apply long-term to some virus infecti=
ons.  Six months later the virus might hit you again.

[2]  Not sure what you mean by this.  The rest of us are manifestly not goi=
ng about our business.  If you mean we are not at risk, that=92s not true a=
t all, and we don=92t know what the risk is (see Richard Stern=92s recent l=
ong post).

[1] Yes, as I pointed out, random sampling won=92t help those who have covi=
d or are in the endangered groups.  Worse, it will take away limited human =
and material resources from those already overworked in tending to these gr=
oups.
   But without random testing, unlikely to happen anyway as pointed out, yo=
u won=92t know what proportion of the population has been exposed and infec=
ted already.   IF this were to turn to be 80% (unlikely to date) AND if the=
re actually is residual immunity (unknown, see [3]), that=92s good because =
the virus might then die out (not enough people left to infect, or else the=
y are residually immune).  Then the politicos can slowly open things up, wh=
ich your point [2] seems to mean.
But, If the number infected turns out to have been around 10% (more likely =
so far), that would leave most of the population (~90%) exposed to this wav=
e or the next one, which would require a quite different societal response.

Steve

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252">
</head>
<body style=3D"word-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; -webkit-lin=
e-break: after-white-space;">
On May 1, 2020, at 7:48 AM, Shouty McShoutsalot &lt;<a href=3D"mailto:desol=
atechair@gmail.com">desolatechair@gmail.com</a>&gt; wrote:<br>
<div><br class=3D"Apple-interchange-newline">
<blockquote type=3D"cite">
<div><!-- START CAUTION Box Code --><!-- END CAUTION Box Code -->
<div>
<div dir=3D"auto"><font color=3D"#000000">[1]</font> We don<font color=3D"#=
000000">=92</font>t need to test the asymptomatic, or a random sample.</div=
>
</div>
</div>
</blockquote>
<br>
<blockquote type=3D"cite">
<div>
<div>
<div dir=3D"auto"><font color=3D"#000000">[2] </font>As long as we identify=
 and protect those at risk (visible symptoms/elderly/pre existing medical i=
ssues) the rest of the population can go about its business.&nbsp;
</div>
</div>
</div>
</blockquote>
<br>
<blockquote type=3D"cite">
<div>
<div>
<div dir=3D"auto"><font color=3D"#000000">[3]</font> Herd immunity will tak=
e care of the virus, as it<font color=3D"#000000">=92</font>s done for mill=
ions of years.
<div dir=3D"auto"><br>
</div>
<div dir=3D"auto">Jamie</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</blockquote>
</div>
<br>
<div>[3] er, no, there is no guarantee that this particular coronovirus wil=
l leave recovered infectees immune, according to my listening nightly to in=
fectious disease experts on CTV, CNN, CBC. &nbsp; Or, if there is some resi=
dual immunity, how long that will persist
 (only a few months perhaps, as with some other viruses). &nbsp;The infecti=
ous diseases doc on air last night said there are preliminary positive repo=
rts from China (but a totalitarian state and they=92ve lied before), a repo=
rt strangely published in some blog and
 not peer reviewed, and one other oddity, I forget: &nbsp;no dependable inf=
o, he said. &nbsp;You can=92t have 'herd immunity' without individual immun=
ity. &nbsp;Long-term herd immunity is fabulous for diseases like measles IF=
 you get your new kids get vaccinated =97 if not, recall
 the recent measles scourge in a NY jewish enclave. &nbsp;But it doesn=92t =
necessarily apply long-term to some virus infections. &nbsp;Six months late=
r the virus might hit you again.</div>
<div><br>
</div>
<div>[2] &nbsp;Not sure what you mean by this. &nbsp;The rest of us are man=
ifestly not going about our business. &nbsp;If you mean we are not at risk,=
 that=92s not true at all, and we don=92t know what the risk is (see Richar=
d Stern=92s recent long post).</div>
<div><br>
</div>
<div>[1] Yes, as I pointed out, random sampling won=92t help those who have=
 covid or are in the endangered groups. &nbsp;Worse, it will take away limi=
ted human and material resources from those already overworked in tending t=
o these groups.</div>
<div>&nbsp; &nbsp;But without random testing, unlikely to happen anyway as =
pointed out, you won=92t know what