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>> are we now heading to an 80% overall infection anyway --_000_9F9CC2A4BFAA49A9907D5182938CC03Bdalca_ Content-Type: text/plain; charset="Windows-1252" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable On May 1, 2020, at 7:48 AM, Shouty McShoutsalot <desolatechair@gmail.com<ma= ilto:desolatechair@gmail.com>> wrote: [1] We don=92t need to test the asymptomatic, or a random sample. [2] As long as we identify and protect those at risk (visible symptoms/elde= rly/pre existing medical issues) the rest of the population can go about it= s business. [3] Herd immunity will take care of the virus, as it=92s done for millions = of years. Jamie [3] er, no, there is no guarantee that this particular coronovirus will lea= ve recovered infectees immune, according to my listening nightly to infecti= ous disease experts on CTV, CNN, CBC. Or, if there is some residual immun= ity, how long that will persist (only a few months perhaps, as with some ot= her viruses). The infectious diseases doc on air last night said there are= preliminary positive reports from China (but a totalitarian state and they= =92ve lied before), a report strangely published in some blog and not peer = reviewed, and one other oddity, I forget: no dependable info, he said. Yo= u can=92t have 'herd immunity' without individual immunity. Long-term herd= immunity is fabulous for diseases like measles IF you get your new kids ge= t vaccinated =97 if not, recall the recent measles scourge in a NY jewish e= nclave. But it doesn=92t necessarily apply long-term to some virus infecti= ons. Six months later the virus might hit you again. [2] Not sure what you mean by this. The rest of us are manifestly not goi= ng about our business. If you mean we are not at risk, that=92s not true a= t all, and we don=92t know what the risk is (see Richard Stern=92s recent l= ong post). [1] Yes, as I pointed out, random sampling won=92t help those who have covi= d or are in the endangered groups. Worse, it will take away limited human = and material resources from those already overworked in tending to these gr= oups. But without random testing, unlikely to happen anyway as pointed out, yo= u won=92t know what proportion of the population has been exposed and infec= ted already. IF this were to turn to be 80% (unlikely to date) AND if the= re actually is residual immunity (unknown, see [3]), that=92s good because = the virus might then die out (not enough people left to infect, or else the= y are residually immune). Then the politicos can slowly open things up, wh= ich your point [2] seems to mean. But, If the number infected turns out to have been around 10% (more likely = so far), that would leave most of the population (~90%) exposed to this wav= e or the next one, which would require a quite different societal response. Steve --_000_9F9CC2A4BFAA49A9907D5182938CC03Bdalca_ Content-Type: text/html; charset="Windows-1252" Content-ID: <3B147DDFEDB24B45A4536544BA8B78CC@CANPRD01.PROD.OUTLOOK.COM> Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable <html> <head> <meta http-equiv=3D"Content-Type" content=3D"text/html; charset=3DWindows-1= 252"> </head> <body style=3D"word-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; -webkit-lin= e-break: after-white-space;"> On May 1, 2020, at 7:48 AM, Shouty McShoutsalot <<a href=3D"mailto:desol= atechair@gmail.com">desolatechair@gmail.com</a>> wrote:<br> <div><br class=3D"Apple-interchange-newline"> <blockquote type=3D"cite"> <div><!-- START CAUTION Box Code --><!-- END CAUTION Box Code --> <div> <div dir=3D"auto"><font color=3D"#000000">[1]</font> We don<font color=3D"#= 000000">=92</font>t need to test the asymptomatic, or a random sample.</div= > </div> </div> </blockquote> <br> <blockquote type=3D"cite"> <div> <div> <div dir=3D"auto"><font color=3D"#000000">[2] </font>As long as we identify= and protect those at risk (visible symptoms/elderly/pre existing medical i= ssues) the rest of the population can go about its business. </div> </div> </div> </blockquote> <br> <blockquote type=3D"cite"> <div> <div> <div dir=3D"auto"><font color=3D"#000000">[3]</font> Herd immunity will tak= e care of the virus, as it<font color=3D"#000000">=92</font>s done for mill= ions of years. <div dir=3D"auto"><br> </div> <div dir=3D"auto">Jamie</div> </div> </div> </div> </blockquote> </div> <br> <div>[3] er, no, there is no guarantee that this particular coronovirus wil= l leave recovered infectees immune, according to my listening nightly to in= fectious disease experts on CTV, CNN, CBC. Or, if there is some resi= dual immunity, how long that will persist (only a few months perhaps, as with some other viruses). The infecti= ous diseases doc on air last night said there are preliminary positive repo= rts from China (but a totalitarian state and they=92ve lied before), a repo= rt strangely published in some blog and not peer reviewed, and one other oddity, I forget: no dependable inf= o, he said. You can=92t have 'herd immunity' without individual immun= ity. Long-term herd immunity is fabulous for diseases like measles IF= you get your new kids get vaccinated =97 if not, recall the recent measles scourge in a NY jewish enclave. But it doesn=92t = necessarily apply long-term to some virus infections. Six months late= r the virus might hit you again.</div> <div><br> </div> <div>[2] Not sure what you mean by this. The rest of us are man= ifestly not going about our business. If you mean we are not at risk,= that=92s not true at all, and we don=92t know what the risk is (see Richar= d Stern=92s recent long post).</div> <div><br> </div> <div>[1] Yes, as I pointed out, random sampling won=92t help those who have= covid or are in the endangered groups. Worse, it will take away limi= ted human and material resources from those already overworked in tending t= o these groups.</div> <div> But without random testing, unlikely to happen anyway as = pointed out, you won=92t know what