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OjBpbjsNCglmb250LXNpemU6MTIuMHB0 --_000_BB70A87CFE8B8B4597E5A9D5EDDAB6FBE102F190AS446provgovnsc_ Content-Type: text/plain; charset="Windows-1252" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable There was a publication from either the late 1950s or early 1960s by Dr R E= Balch called the Ecological Viewpoint... It came from either an episode o= r a series from CBC University of the Air in which he discussed the impact= of contemporary and historical use of forest insecticides altering the dy= namics of the budworm populations through selecting for resistant forms. As I recall he noted that the cycling of those populations was regular and = predictable with relatively clearly defined maxima and minima in population= sizes He noted that the selective pressure of the chemicals reduced the cy= clic nature of the species and resulted in an incremental increase in the "= low levels" of the species, to the point where the base level of those popu= lations was higher than the upper level o the normal population oscillation= s. The point being that climate change is not necessarily the principal drivin= g force for specific species impacts. I will see if I can track down the p= ublication (I think he may have been UNB Fredericton) A ________________________________ From: naturens-owner@chebucto.ns.ca [naturens-owner@chebucto.ns.ca] on beha= lf of Laviolette, Lance [lance.laviolette@lmco.com] Sent: June-20-18 5:19 PM To: naturens@chebucto.ns.ca Subject: Re: [NatureNS] Nova Scotian forest composition Hi Donna, Budworm is a native insect however it, like non-native insects, will change= the composition of Nova Scotia forests and that was what my original quest= ion was all about. As David has now pointed out, climate change will also b= e a major =91player=92 in what the resulting forest will look like in 20 ye= ars. Predictions of what things will be in the future are simply an exercise in = assumptions so will not be interesting to everyone. Sticking with facts the= n, the budworm=92s cyclical impact on Maritime forests is as important as a= non-native insect=92s effect is. The impact on bird populations is a well-= studied phenomena. You mention that you are seeing a few more Bay-breasted = Warblers in the forest monitoring plots. I can tell you that monitoring on = Brier Island has shown that the population of both Bay-breasted and Cape Ma= y Warblers have been rising dramatically over the last 4-5 years. I expect = they will continue to increase, as they did 40 years ago as long as the Spr= uce Budworm populations remain high in the Maritimes and the Gasp=E9. The o= dd thing is that so far the expected rise in Tennessee Warbler numbers hasn= =92t materialized in our observations. Let us know when you start detecting= more of that species on your plots and I=92ll do the same when numbers inc= rease during migration on Brier Island. All the best, Lance Lance Laviolette Glen Robertson, Ontario From: naturens-owner@chebucto.ns.ca [mailto:naturens-owner@chebucto.ns.ca] = On Behalf Of Donna Crossland Sent: Tuesday, June 19, 2018 6:21 PM To: naturens@chebucto.ns.ca Subject: EXTERNAL: Re: [NatureNS] Nova Scotian forest composition It's best to avoid the 'company line' about "spruce budworm left unchecked"= . This is a topic that the forest industry uses to instill panic to justif= y full scale harvesting of spruce and fir, complete with a spray program, e= tc. Budworm is a native pest and should not enter the conversations over e= xotics. It comes 'round every few decades, as we know. Bay-breasted, Tenn= essee and other warbler species can increase rapidly. We can sit back and = enjoy watching natures responses to it. This year I observed a few more Bay= -breasted warblers in forest monitoring plots than previous years, and am q= uestioning if they are from an increased number resulting from the Qc popul= ation that decided to settle in southwest NS this year instead of heading f= arther north after returning from the tropics. The forest industry and DNR would have us "tinker" with this this natural d= isturbance agent. But balsam fir was never "built to last". Titus Smith r= eferred to it as a nursery tree to shelter the growth of other late success= ional tree species. Early entry harvesting in the pure fir/spruce stands w= ould mitigate the fear of trees dying all at once and wood going to 'waste'= (industry thinking, not mine), but in actuality industry doesn't want to f= loat in the big machines for multiple, early, preemptive partial harvests.= The cheapest approach is to harvest all at once, so they wait until the b= udworm hits (it was all so predictable), and then cries wolf and harvests = all at once. But this is the worst scenario for all other ecosystem compon= ents including soil nutrients then exposed to leaching. The budworm issue = really hits a nerve. Balsam fir and spruce will regenerate after budworm. No worries there. Bu= t hemlock will be repeatedly hit by HWA and not successfully reestablish. = It will be no more. That's the huge difference between native pests and ex= otics. The latter situation leaves a permanent void. Forests without heml= ock, ash, and beech are likely imminent, perhaps in as little as two decade= s, but who knows. Nature will figure something out, but all these rapid ch= anges are occurring because of human activities. --_000_BB70A87CFE8B8B4597E5A9D5EDDAB6FBE102F190AS446provgovnsc_ Content-Type: text/html; charset="Windows-1252" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable <html dir=3D"ltr"> <head> <meta http-equiv=3D"Content-Type" content=3D"text/html; charset=3DWindows-1= 252"> <style>@font-face { font-family: Calibri; } @font-face { font-family: Baskerville Old Face; } @page WordSection1 {margin: 1.0in 1.25in 1.0in 1.25in; } P.MsoNormal { FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman",serif; COLOR: black; MARGI= N: 0in 0in 0pt } LI.MsoNormal { FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman",serif; COLOR: black; MARGI= N: 0in 0in 0pt } DIV.MsoNormal { FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman",serif; COLOR: black; MARGI= N: 0in 0in 0pt } A:link { TEXT-DECORATION: underline; COLOR: blue } SPAN.MsoHyperlink { TEXT-DECORATION: underline; COLOR: blue } A:visited { TEXT-DECORATION: underline; COLOR: purple } SPAN.MsoHyperlinkFollowed { TEXT-DECORATION: underline; COLOR: purple } P.msochpdefault { FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman",serif; COLOR: black; MARGI= N-LEFT: 0in; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0in } LI.msochpdefault { FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman",serif; COLOR: black; MARGI= N-LEFT: 0in; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0in } DIV.msochpdefault { FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman",serif; COLOR: black; MARGI= N-LEFT: 0in; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0in } SPAN.emailstyle18 { FONT-FAMI