Re[2]: [NatureNS] Nova Scotian forest composition was Lyme disease

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From: David <dwebster@glinx.com>
To: naturens@chebucto.ns.ca
Date: Wed, 20 Jun 2018 01:37:16 +0000
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    &lt;p&gt;The forest industry and DNR
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Hi Lance & All,
     I would draw a distinction between 1) changes which will be due to=20
current trends in environment, provided these trends continue and=20
consequently predictable to some degree. And changes 2) due to some=20
entirely new effect and thus not predictable. And in addition 3) changes=20
which apply more to some areas in NS than other areas or 4) apply=20
locally as in passive stand rotation [e.g. Hemlock being replaced by=20
something else when an area of soil becomes Hemlock unfriendly; my slow=20
secondary succession of June 18.]
      My view has been mostly limited, since 2009, to woods near=20
Kentville and the trend which I first noticed about 1990 for Red or=20
White Spruce to fail prematurely has become steadily worse. Even if the=20
weather experienced since 2013 does not become more unfavourable I think=20
Spruce is a poor bet for survival to sawlog age even if the budworm=20
fails to get here. And erratic growing season rainfall seems to have=20
become worse since about 1990 but especially since about 1998.
     And rainfall distribution does no tell the whole story because=20
Accumulated Potential Evapotranspiration Deficit is the meaningful=20
yardstick and that has never caught on because it is soil property=20
dependent. But I digress.
     How Ash will fare when the Ash Borer gets here is an open question.=20
So far Oak, Maples, White Birch, Ash, and even Beech
seem unaffected by our recent erratic rainfall and relatively unaffected=20
by high wind events.
     To understand why Maples cope, follow the root system. Except on=20
sites with a high water table it is extensive and highly branched. Ash=20
will blow over if crowded by Poplar and partly uprooted by large Poplar=20
windfalls. I have never seen an Oak windfall apart from giants which=20
were partly dead.
     As a prediction. Poplar trees which have a noticeable lean will=20
continue to lean more over time.
Yt, DW, Kentville

------ Original Message ------
From: "rita.paul@ns.sympatico.ca" <rita.paul@ns.sympatico.ca>
To: naturens@chebucto.ns.ca
Sent: 6/19/2018 1:16:52 PM
Subject: Re: [NatureNS] Nova Scotian forest composition was Lyme disease

>Well Lance predictions for the future are chancy business!
>I even have trouble predicting the winner of the next
>race when I attend the horse races!
>I suspect that there is a chance Genetic Modifying could
>be used to save some species of trees,
>Enjoy the last few days of spring
>Paul
>
>>On June 19, 2018 at 11:43 AM "Laviolette, Lance"=20
>><lance.laviolette@lmco.com> wrote:
>>
>>Hi Dave,
>>
>>
>>
>>There are a number insects and diseases in the pipeline that will add=20
>>to those such as Dutch Elm and Beech canker. Emerald Ash borer has=20
>>left vast areas of skeletal tree remains in Ontario and western Quebec=20
>>where ash trees used to dominate. If Eastern Hemlock is mostly removed=20
>>from the equation and spruce budworm is left unchecked my question=20
>>would be, what do you foresee the composition of Nova Scotian forests=20
>>to be in 20 years? Are we looking at large areas where cherry and=20
>>birch dominate until fir and spruce regrow and maple, oak and Yellow=20
>>Birch become the only hardwood trees of any size?
>>
>>
>>
>>All the best,
>>
>>
>>
>>Lance
>>
>>
>>
>>Lance Laviolette
>>
>>Glen Robertson, Ontario
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>From:naturens-owner@chebucto.ns.ca=20
>>[mailto:naturens-owner@chebucto.ns.ca] On Behalf Of David
>>Sent: Monday, June 18, 2018 6:11 PM
>>To:naturens@chebucto.ns.ca
>>Subject: EXTERNAL: Re[2]: [NatureNS] Lyme disease
>>
>>
>>
>>Hi All,
>>
>>     The discussion has already strayed far from the original topic of=20
>>Lyme disease so I will continue this journey by throwing in some=20
>>general thoughts about Hemlock and Yellow Birch; based on casual=20
>>observation.     Both can attain majestic size (so does Oak and Ash)=20
>>and once established are land hogs. I suspect Yellow Birch does this=20
>>by a wide ranging root system and Hemlock by widely spreading=20
>>branches. Hemlock tends to develop relatively pure stands perhaps=20
>>because they are masters at root grafting and nourish nearby young to=20
>>replace them when they die.
>>
>>     Thus I have a soft spot for Hemlock and Yellow Birch but know that=
=20
>>they too will eventually render their soil more suitable for something=20
>>else and accordingly succumb to pest or disease; secondary succession=20
>>in unusually slow motion.
>>
>>     Consequently I think that the death of large numbers of Hemlock in=
=20
>>SW NS is not cause for grief or alarm; but perhaps suitable action by=20
>>landowners.
>>
>>     My 2 cents as someone was fond of saying.
>>
>>Yt, DW, Kentville
>>
>>>
>>>
>
>
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   =20
=20
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=20
 </head><body><div>Hi Lance &amp; All,</div><div>=C2=A0 =C2=A0 I would draw =
a distinction between 1) changes which will be due to current trends in en=
vironment, provided these trends continue and consequently predictable to s=
ome degree. And changes 2) due to some entirely new effect and thus not pre=
dictable. And in addition 3) changes which apply more to some areas in NS t=
han other areas or 4) apply locally as in passive stand rotation [e.g. Heml=
ock being replaced by something else when an area of soil becomes Hemlock u=
nfriendly; my slow secondary succession of June 18.] =C2=A0=C2=A0</div><div=
>=C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0My view has been mostly limited, since 2009, to woods=
 near Kentville and the trend which I first noticed about 1990 for Red or Wh=
ite Spruce to fail prematurely has become steadily worse. Even if the weath=
er experienced since 2013 does not become more unfavourable I think Spruce=
 is a poor bet for survival to sawlog age even if the budworm fails to get h=
ere. And erratic growing season rainfall seems to have become worse since a=
bout 1990 but especially since about 1998.=C2=A0</div><div>=C2=A0 =C2=A0 An=
d rainfall distribution does no tell the whole story because Accumulated Po=
tential Evapotranspiration Deficit is the meaningful yardstick and that has =
never caught on because it is soil property dependent. But I digress.</div=
><div>=C2=A0 =C2=A0 How Ash will fare when the Ash Borer gets here is an op=
en question. So far Oak, Maples, White Birch, Ash, and even=C2=A0Beech</div=
>
<div>seem unaffected by our recent erratic rainfall and relatively unaffect=
ed by high wind events.</div><div>=C2=A0 =C2=A0 To understand why Maples co=
pe, follow the root system. Except on sites with a high water table it is e=
xtensive and highly branched. Ash will blow over if crowded by Poplar and p=
artly uprooted by large Poplar windfalls. I have never seen an Oak windfall =
apart from giants which were partly dead. =C2=A0</div><div>=C2=A0 =C2=A0 A=
s a prediction. Poplar trees which have a noticeable lean will continue to=
 lean more over time.=C2=A0</div><div>Yt, DW, Kentville</div><div><br /></di=
v>
<div>------ Original Message ------</div>
<div>From: "rita.paul@ns.sympatico.ca" &lt;<a href=3D"mailto:rita.paul@ns.s=
ympatico.ca">rita.paul@ns.sympatico.ca</a>&gt;</div>
<div>To: <a href=3D"mailto:naturens@chebucto.ns.ca">naturens@chebucto.ns.ca=
</a></div>
<div>Sent: 6/19/2018 1:16:52 PM</div>
<div>Subject: Re: [NatureNS] Nova Scotian forest composition was Lyme disea=
se</div><div><br /></div>
<div id=3D"xb63e362ff43e4d0"><blockquote cite=3D"786033645.4537279.15294250=
12128.open-xchange@webmail.bellaliant.net" type=3D"cite" class=3D"cite2">

=20
  <div>
   Well Lance predictions for the future are chancy business!
  </div>=20
  <div>
   I even have trouble predicting the winner of the next<br />
  </div>=20
  <div>
   race when I attend the horse races!<br />
  </div>=20
  <div>
   I suspect that there is a chance Genetic Modifying could<br />
  </div>=20
  <div>
   be used to save some species of trees,<br />
  </div>=20
  <div>
   Enjoy the last few days of spring<br />
  </div>=20
  <div>
   Paul<br />
  </div>=20
  <div>
   =C2=A0
  </div>=20
  <blockquote style=3D"position: relative; margin-left: 0px; padding-left:=
 10px; border-left: solid 1px blue;" type=3D"cite" class=3D"cite">
   <!-- [if gte mso 9]> -->
   <!-- <![endif] -->
   <!-- [if gte mso 9]> -->
   <!-- <![endif] --> On June 19, 2018 at 11:43 AM "Laviolette, Lance" &lt;=
lance.laviolette@lmco.com&=
gt; wrote:
   <br />
   <br />=20
   <div class=3D"WordSection1">=20
    <p class=3D"MsoNormal"><span style=3D"font-size: 11.0pt; font-family: '=
Calibri',sans-serif; color: #1f497d;">Hi Dave,</span></p>=20
    <p class=3D"MsoNormal"><span style=3D"font-size: 11.0pt; font-family: '=
Calibri',sans-serif; color: #1f497d;">=C2=A0</span></p>=20
    <p class=3D"MsoNormal"><span style=3D"font-size: 11.0pt; font-family: '=
Calibri',sans-serif; color: #1f497d;">There are a number insects and diseas=
es in the pipeline that will add to those such as Dutch Elm and Beech canke=
r. Emerald Ash borer has left vast areas of skeletal tree remains in Ontari=
o and western Quebec where ash trees used to dominate. If Eastern Hemlock i=
s mostly removed from the equation and spruce budworm is left unchecked my=
 question would be, what do you foresee the composition of Nova Scotian fore=
sts to be in 20 years? Are we looking at large areas where cherry and birch =
dominate until fir and spruce regrow and maple, oak and Yellow Birch becom=
e the only hardwood trees of any size?</span></p>=20
    <p class=3D"MsoNormal"><span style=3D"font-size: 11.0pt; font-family: '=
Calibri',sans-serif; color: #1f497d;">=C2=A0</span></p>=20
    <p class=3D"MsoNormal"><span style=3D"font-size: 11.0pt; font-family: '=
Calibri',sans-serif; color: #1f497d;">All the best,</span></p>=20
    <p class=3D"MsoNormal"><span style=3D"font-size: 11.0pt; font-family: '=
Calibri',sans-serif; color: #1f497d;">=C2=A0</span></p>=20
    <p class=3D"MsoNormal"><span style=3D"font-size: 11.0pt; font-family: '=
Calibri',sans-serif; color: #1f497d;">Lance</span></p>=20
    <p class=3D"MsoNormal"><span style=3D"font-size: 11.0pt; font-family: '=
Calibri',sans-serif; color: #1f497d;">=C2=A0</span></p>=20
    <p class=3D"MsoNormal"><span style=3D"font-size: 11.0pt; font-family: '=
Baskerville Old Face',serif; color: #1f497d;">Lance Laviolette</span></p>=
=20
    <p class=3D"MsoNormal"><span style=3D"font-size: 11.0pt; font-family: '=
Baskerville Old Face',serif; color: #1f497d;">Glen Robertson, Ontario</span=
></p>=20
    <p class=3D"MsoNormal"><span style=3D"font-size: 11.0pt; font-family: '=
Calibri',sans-serif; color: #1f497d;">=C2=A0</span></p>=20
    <p class=3D"MsoNormal"><span style=3D"font-size: 11.0pt; font-family: '=
Calibri',sans-serif; color: #1f497d;">=C2=A0</span></p>=20
    <p class=3D"MsoNormal"><span style=3D"font-size: 11.0pt; font-family: '=
Calibri',sans-serif; color: #1f497d;">=C2=A0</span></p>=20
    <div>=20
     <div style=3D"border: none; border-top: solid #E1E1E1 1.0pt; padding:=
 3.0pt 0in 0in 0in;">=20
      <p class=3D"MsoNormal"><strong><span style=3D"font-size: 11.0pt; font=
-family: 'Calibri',sans-serif;">From:</span></strong><span style=3D"font-si=
ze: 11.0pt; font-family: 'Calibri',sans-serif;"> <a href=3D"mailto:naturens=
-owner@chebucto.ns.ca">naturens-owner@chebucto.ns.ca</a> [mailto:<a href=3D=
"mailto:naturens-owner@chebucto.ns.ca">naturens-owner@chebucto.ns.ca</a>] <=
strong>On Behalf Of </strong>David<br /> <strong>Sent:</strong> Monday, Jun=
e 18, 2018 6:11 PM<br /> <strong>To:</strong> <a href=3D"mailto:naturens@ch=
ebucto.ns.ca">naturens@chebucto.ns.ca</a><br /> <strong>Subject:</strong> E=
XTERNAL: Re[2]: [NatureNS] Lyme disease</span></p>=20
     </div>=20
    </div>=20
    <p class=3D"MsoNormal">=C2=A0</p>=20
    <div>=20
     <p class=3D"MsoNormal"><span style=3D"font-family: 'Tahoma',sans-serif=
;">Hi All,</span></p>=20
    </div>=20
    <div>=20
     <p class=3D"MsoNormal"><span style=3D"font-family: 'Tahoma',sans-serif=
;">=C2=A0 =C2=A0 The discussion has already strayed far from the original t=
opic of Lyme disease so I will continue this journey by throwing in some ge=
neral thoughts about Hemlock and Yellow Birch; based on casual observation. =
=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0Both can attain majestic size (so does Oak and Ash=
) and once established are land hogs. I suspect Yellow Birch does this by a =
wide ranging root system and Hemlock by widely spreading branches. Hemlock =
tends to develop relatively pure stands perhaps because they are masters a=
t root grafting and nourish nearby young to replace them when they die.</sp=
an></p>=20
    </div>=20
    <div>=20
     <p class=3D"MsoNormal"><span style=3D"font-family: 'Tahoma',sans-serif=
;">=C2=A0 =C2=A0 Thus I have a soft spot for Hemlock and Yellow Birch but k=
now that they too will eventually render their soil more suitable for somet=
hing else and accordingly succumb=C2=A0to pest or disease; secondary succes=
sion in unusually slow motion.=C2=A0</span></p>=20
    </div>=20
    <div>=20
     <p class=3D"MsoNormal"><span style=3D"font-family: 'Tahoma',sans-serif=
;">=C2=A0 =C2=A0 Consequently I think that the death of large numbers of He=
mlock in SW NS is not cause for grief or alarm; but perhaps suitable action =
by landowners.=C2=A0</span></p>=20
    </div>=20
    <div>=20
     <p class=3D"MsoNormal"><span style=3D"font-family: 'Tahoma',sans-serif=
;">=C2=A0 =C2=A0=C2=A0My 2 cents as someone was fond of saying.</span></p>=
=20
    </div>=20
    <div>=20
     <p class=3D"MsoNormal"><span style=3D"font-family: 'Tahoma',sans-serif=
;">Yt, DW, Kentville</span></p>=20
    </div>=20
    <div id=3D"xfbaf92d044d04bb">=20
     <blockquote style=3D"border: none; border-left: solid #CCCCCC 1.0pt; p=
adding: 0in 0in 0in 8.0pt; margin-left: 3.75pt; margin-top: 2.25pt; margin-=
right: 0in; margin-bottom: 5.0pt;">=20
      <div id=3D"DAB4FAD8-2DD7-40BB-A1B8-4E2AA1F9FDF2">=20
       <p class=3D"MsoNormal"><span style=3D"font-size: 11pt; font-family:=
 Calibri, sans-serif;">=C2=A0</span></p>=20
      </div>=20
     </blockquote>=20
    </div>=20
   </div>=20
  </blockquote>=20
  <div>
   <br />=C2=A0
  </div>
=20
</blockquote></div>

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