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<p>The forest industry and DNR --------=_MB24D54128-1DDD-4AE5-8BA2-4E443F878363 Content-Type: text/plain; format=flowed; charset=utf-8 Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Hi Lance & All, I would draw a distinction between 1) changes which will be due to=20 current trends in environment, provided these trends continue and=20 consequently predictable to some degree. And changes 2) due to some=20 entirely new effect and thus not predictable. And in addition 3) changes=20 which apply more to some areas in NS than other areas or 4) apply=20 locally as in passive stand rotation [e.g. Hemlock being replaced by=20 something else when an area of soil becomes Hemlock unfriendly; my slow=20 secondary succession of June 18.] My view has been mostly limited, since 2009, to woods near=20 Kentville and the trend which I first noticed about 1990 for Red or=20 White Spruce to fail prematurely has become steadily worse. Even if the=20 weather experienced since 2013 does not become more unfavourable I think=20 Spruce is a poor bet for survival to sawlog age even if the budworm=20 fails to get here. And erratic growing season rainfall seems to have=20 become worse since about 1990 but especially since about 1998. And rainfall distribution does no tell the whole story because=20 Accumulated Potential Evapotranspiration Deficit is the meaningful=20 yardstick and that has never caught on because it is soil property=20 dependent. But I digress. How Ash will fare when the Ash Borer gets here is an open question.=20 So far Oak, Maples, White Birch, Ash, and even Beech seem unaffected by our recent erratic rainfall and relatively unaffected=20 by high wind events. To understand why Maples cope, follow the root system. Except on=20 sites with a high water table it is extensive and highly branched. Ash=20 will blow over if crowded by Poplar and partly uprooted by large Poplar=20 windfalls. I have never seen an Oak windfall apart from giants which=20 were partly dead. As a prediction. Poplar trees which have a noticeable lean will=20 continue to lean more over time. Yt, DW, Kentville ------ Original Message ------ From: "rita.paul@ns.sympatico.ca" <rita.paul@ns.sympatico.ca> To: naturens@chebucto.ns.ca Sent: 6/19/2018 1:16:52 PM Subject: Re: [NatureNS] Nova Scotian forest composition was Lyme disease >Well Lance predictions for the future are chancy business! >I even have trouble predicting the winner of the next >race when I attend the horse races! >I suspect that there is a chance Genetic Modifying could >be used to save some species of trees, >Enjoy the last few days of spring >Paul > >>On June 19, 2018 at 11:43 AM "Laviolette, Lance"=20 >><lance.laviolette@lmco.com> wrote: >> >>Hi Dave, >> >> >> >>There are a number insects and diseases in the pipeline that will add=20 >>to those such as Dutch Elm and Beech canker. Emerald Ash borer has=20 >>left vast areas of skeletal tree remains in Ontario and western Quebec=20 >>where ash trees used to dominate. If Eastern Hemlock is mostly removed=20 >>from the equation and spruce budworm is left unchecked my question=20 >>would be, what do you foresee the composition of Nova Scotian forests=20 >>to be in 20 years? Are we looking at large areas where cherry and=20 >>birch dominate until fir and spruce regrow and maple, oak and Yellow=20 >>Birch become the only hardwood trees of any size? >> >> >> >>All the best, >> >> >> >>Lance >> >> >> >>Lance Laviolette >> >>Glen Robertson, Ontario >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >>From:naturens-owner@chebucto.ns.ca=20 >>[mailto:naturens-owner@chebucto.ns.ca] On Behalf Of David >>Sent: Monday, June 18, 2018 6:11 PM >>To:naturens@chebucto.ns.ca >>Subject: EXTERNAL: Re[2]: [NatureNS] Lyme disease >> >> >> >>Hi All, >> >> The discussion has already strayed far from the original topic of=20 >>Lyme disease so I will continue this journey by throwing in some=20 >>general thoughts about Hemlock and Yellow Birch; based on casual=20 >>observation. Both can attain majestic size (so does Oak and Ash)=20 >>and once established are land hogs. I suspect Yellow Birch does this=20 >>by a wide ranging root system and Hemlock by widely spreading=20 >>branches. Hemlock tends to develop relatively pure stands perhaps=20 >>because they are masters at root grafting and nourish nearby young to=20 >>replace them when they die. >> >> Thus I have a soft spot for Hemlock and Yellow Birch but know that= =20 >>they too will eventually render their soil more suitable for something=20 >>else and accordingly succumb to pest or disease; secondary succession=20 >>in unusually slow motion. >> >> Consequently I think that the death of large numbers of Hemlock in= =20 >>SW NS is not cause for grief or alarm; but perhaps suitable action by=20 >>landowners. >> >> My 2 cents as someone was fond of saying. >> >>Yt, DW, Kentville >> >>> >>> > > --------=_MB24D54128-1DDD-4AE5-8BA2-4E443F878363 Content-Type: text/html; charset=utf-8 Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable <html><head> =20 =20 <style type=3D"text/css"><!--#xb63e362ff43e4d0 p.MsoNormal {margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 'Times New Roman', = serif;} #xb63e362ff43e4d0 a:link {color: blue; text-decoration: underline;} #xb63e362ff43e4d0 a:visited {color: purple; text-decoration: underline;} #xb63e362ff43e4d0 p {margin-right: 0in; margin-left: 0in; font-size: 12pt; font-family: 'Times= New Roman', serif;} --></style><style id=3D"css_styles" type=3D"text/css"><!--blockquote.cite { = margin-left: 5px; margin-right: 0px; padding-left: 10px; padding-right:0px= ; border-left: 1px solid #cccccc } blockquote.cite2 {margin-left: 5px; margin-right: 0px; padding-left: 10px;= padding-right:0px; border-left: 1px solid #cccccc; margin-top: 3px; padding= -top: 0px; } a img { border: 0px; } li[style=3D'text-align: center;'], li[style=3D'text-align: right;'] { list= -style-position: inside;} body { font-family: Tahoma; font-size: 12pt; }--></style> =20 </head><body><div>Hi Lance & All,</div><div>=C2=A0 =C2=A0 I would draw = a distinction between 1) changes which will be due to current trends in en= vironment, provided these trends continue and consequently predictable to s= ome degree. And changes 2) due to some entirely new effect and thus not pre= dictable. And in addition 3) changes which apply more to some areas in NS t= han other areas or 4) apply locally as in passive stand rotation [e.g. Heml= ock being replaced by something else when an area of soil becomes Hemlock u= nfriendly; my slow secondary succession of June 18.] =C2=A0=C2=A0</div><div= >=C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0My view has been mostly limited, since 2009, to woods= near Kentville and the trend which I first noticed about 1990 for Red or Wh= ite Spruce to fail prematurely has become steadily worse. Even if the weath= er experienced since 2013 does not become more unfavourable I think Spruce= is a poor bet for survival to sawlog age even if the budworm fails to get h= ere. And erratic growing season rainfall seems to have become worse since a= bout 1990 but especially since about 1998.=C2=A0</div><div>=C2=A0 =C2=A0 An= d rainfall distribution does no tell the whole story because Accumulated Po= tential Evapotranspiration Deficit is the meaningful yardstick and that has = never caught on because it is soil property dependent. But I digress.</div= ><div>=C2=A0 =C2=A0 How Ash will fare when the Ash Borer gets here is an op= en question. So far Oak, Maples, White Birch, Ash, and even=C2=A0Beech</div= > <div>seem unaffected by our recent erratic rainfall and relatively unaffect= ed by high wind events.</div><div>=C2=A0 =C2=A0 To understand why Maples co= pe, follow the root system. Except on sites with a high water table it is e= xtensive and highly branched. Ash will blow over if crowded by Poplar and p= artly uprooted by large Poplar windfalls. I have never seen an Oak windfall = apart from giants which were partly dead. =C2=A0</div><div>=C2=A0 =C2=A0 A= s a prediction. Poplar trees which have a noticeable lean will continue to= lean more over time.=C2=A0</div><div>Yt, DW, Kentville</div><div><br /></di= v> <div>------ Original Message ------</div> <div>From: "rita.paul@ns.sympatico.ca" <<a href=3D"mailto:rita.paul@ns.s= ympatico.ca">rita.paul@ns.sympatico.ca</a>></div> <div>To: <a href=3D"mailto:naturens@chebucto.ns.ca">naturens@chebucto.ns.ca= </a></div> <div>Sent: 6/19/2018 1:16:52 PM</div> <div>Subject: Re: [NatureNS] Nova Scotian forest composition was Lyme disea= se</div><div><br /></div> <div id=3D"xb63e362ff43e4d0"><blockquote cite=3D"786033645.4537279.15294250= 12128.open-xchange@webmail.bellaliant.net" type=3D"cite" class=3D"cite2"> =20 <div> Well Lance predictions for the future are chancy business! </div>=20 <div> I even have trouble predicting the winner of the next<br /> </div>=20 <div> race when I attend the horse races!<br /> </div>=20 <div> I suspect that there is a chance Genetic Modifying could<br /> </div>=20 <div> be used to save some species of trees,<br /> </div>=20 <div> Enjoy the last few days of spring<br /> </div>=20 <div> Paul<br /> </div>=20 <div> =C2=A0 </div>=20 <blockquote style=3D"position: relative; margin-left: 0px; padding-left:= 10px; border-left: solid 1px blue;" type=3D"cite" class=3D"cite"> <!-- [if gte mso 9]> --> <!-- <![endif] --> <!-- [if gte mso 9]> --> <!-- <![endif] --> On June 19, 2018 at 11:43 AM "Laviolette, Lance" <= lance.laviolette@lmco.com&= gt; wrote: <br /> <br />=20 <div class=3D"WordSection1">=20 <p class=3D"MsoNormal"><span style=3D"font-size: 11.0pt; font-family: '= Calibri',sans-serif; color: #1f497d;">Hi Dave,</span></p>=20 <p class=3D"MsoNormal"><span style=3D"font-size: 11.0pt; font-family: '= Calibri',sans-serif; color: #1f497d;">=C2=A0</span></p>=20 <p class=3D"MsoNormal"><span style=3D"font-size: 11.0pt; font-family: '= Calibri',sans-serif; color: #1f497d;">There are a number insects and diseas= es in the pipeline that will add to those such as Dutch Elm and Beech canke= r. Emerald Ash borer has left vast areas of skeletal tree remains in Ontari= o and western Quebec where ash trees used to dominate. If Eastern Hemlock i= s mostly removed from the equation and spruce budworm is left unchecked my= question would be, what do you foresee the composition of Nova Scotian fore= sts to be in 20 years? Are we looking at large areas where cherry and birch = dominate until fir and spruce regrow and maple, oak and Yellow Birch becom= e the only hardwood trees of any size?</span></p>=20 <p class=3D"MsoNormal"><span style=3D"font-size: 11.0pt; font-family: '= Calibri',sans-serif; color: #1f497d;">=C2=A0</span></p>=20 <p class=3D"MsoNormal"><span style=3D"font-size: 11.0pt; font-family: '= Calibri',sans-serif; color: #1f497d;">All the best,</span></p>=20 <p class=3D"MsoNormal"><span style=3D"font-size: 11.0pt; font-family: '= Calibri',sans-serif; color: #1f497d;">=C2=A0</span></p>=20 <p class=3D"MsoNormal"><span style=3D"font-size: 11.0pt; font-family: '= Calibri',sans-serif; color: #1f497d;">Lance</span></p>=20 <p class=3D"MsoNormal"><span style=3D"font-size: 11.0pt; font-family: '= Calibri',sans-serif; color: #1f497d;">=C2=A0</span></p>=20 <p class=3D"MsoNormal"><span style=3D"font-size: 11.0pt; font-family: '= Baskerville Old Face',serif; color: #1f497d;">Lance Laviolette</span></p>= =20 <p class=3D"MsoNormal"><span style=3D"font-size: 11.0pt; font-family: '= Baskerville Old Face',serif; color: #1f497d;">Glen Robertson, Ontario</span= ></p>=20 <p class=3D"MsoNormal"><span style=3D"font-size: 11.0pt; font-family: '= Calibri',sans-serif; color: #1f497d;">=C2=A0</span></p>=20 <p class=3D"MsoNormal"><span style=3D"font-size: 11.0pt; font-family: '= Calibri',sans-serif; color: #1f497d;">=C2=A0</span></p>=20 <p class=3D"MsoNormal"><span style=3D"font-size: 11.0pt; font-family: '= Calibri',sans-serif; color: #1f497d;">=C2=A0</span></p>=20 <div>=20 <div style=3D"border: none; border-top: solid #E1E1E1 1.0pt; padding:= 3.0pt 0in 0in 0in;">=20 <p class=3D"MsoNormal"><strong><span style=3D"font-size: 11.0pt; font= -family: 'Calibri',sans-serif;">From:</span></strong><span style=3D"font-si= ze: 11.0pt; font-family: 'Calibri',sans-serif;"> <a href=3D"mailto:naturens= -owner@chebucto.ns.ca">naturens-owner@chebucto.ns.ca</a> [mailto:<a href=3D= "mailto:naturens-owner@chebucto.ns.ca">naturens-owner@chebucto.ns.ca</a>] <= strong>On Behalf Of </strong>David<br /> <strong>Sent:</strong> Monday, Jun= e 18, 2018 6:11 PM<br /> <strong>To:</strong> <a href=3D"mailto:naturens@ch= ebucto.ns.ca">naturens@chebucto.ns.ca</a><br /> <strong>Subject:</strong> E= XTERNAL: Re[2]: [NatureNS] Lyme disease</span></p>=20 </div>=20 </div>=20 <p class=3D"MsoNormal">=C2=A0</p>=20 <div>=20 <p class=3D"MsoNormal"><span style=3D"font-family: 'Tahoma',sans-serif= ;">Hi All,</span></p>=20 </div>=20 <div>=20 <p class=3D"MsoNormal"><span style=3D"font-family: 'Tahoma',sans-serif= ;">=C2=A0 =C2=A0 The discussion has already strayed far from the original t= opic of Lyme disease so I will continue this journey by throwing in some ge= neral thoughts about Hemlock and Yellow Birch; based on casual observation. = =C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0Both can attain majestic size (so does Oak and Ash= ) and once established are land hogs. I suspect Yellow Birch does this by a = wide ranging root system and Hemlock by widely spreading branches. Hemlock = tends to develop relatively pure stands perhaps because they are masters a= t root grafting and nourish nearby young to replace them when they die.</sp= an></p>=20 </div>=20 <div>=20 <p class=3D"MsoNormal"><span style=3D"font-family: 'Tahoma',sans-serif= ;">=C2=A0 =C2=A0 Thus I have a soft spot for Hemlock and Yellow Birch but k= now that they too will eventually render their soil more suitable for somet= hing else and accordingly succumb=C2=A0to pest or disease; secondary succes= sion in unusually slow motion.=C2=A0</span></p>=20 </div>=20 <div>=20 <p class=3D"MsoNormal"><span style=3D"font-family: 'Tahoma',sans-serif= ;">=C2=A0 =C2=A0 Consequently I think that the death of large numbers of He= mlock in SW NS is not cause for grief or alarm; but perhaps suitable action = by landowners.=C2=A0</span></p>=20 </div>=20 <div>=20 <p class=3D"MsoNormal"><span style=3D"font-family: 'Tahoma',sans-serif= ;">=C2=A0 =C2=A0=C2=A0My 2 cents as someone was fond of saying.</span></p>= =20 </div>=20 <div>=20 <p class=3D"MsoNormal"><span style=3D"font-family: 'Tahoma',sans-serif= ;">Yt, DW, Kentville</span></p>=20 </div>=20 <div id=3D"xfbaf92d044d04bb">=20 <blockquote style=3D"border: none; border-left: solid #CCCCCC 1.0pt; p= adding: 0in 0in 0in 8.0pt; margin-left: 3.75pt; margin-top: 2.25pt; margin-= right: 0in; margin-bottom: 5.0pt;">=20 <div id=3D"DAB4FAD8-2DD7-40BB-A1B8-4E2AA1F9FDF2">=20 <p class=3D"MsoNormal"><span style=3D"font-size: 11pt; font-family:= Calibri, sans-serif;">=C2=A0</span></p>=20 </div>=20 </blockquote>=20 </div>=20 </div>=20 </blockquote>=20 <div> <br />=C2=A0 </div> =20 </blockquote></div> </body></html> --------=_MB24D54128-1DDD-4AE5-8BA2-4E443F878363--
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