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Hi Dave,
I think we've been here before a while back, and that this '17y not-warming' idea is just plain wrong.
The analysis can't be got from a single thermometer in downtown Washington or wherever, but depends on complex models using world-wide data run on big computers from which we can only read the summarized results, and with which even the model protagonists are dissatisfied. There's a call last week in a learned journal that the model builders want to be able to model smaller chunks of the earth's surface down to 1km^2 to better deal with local cloud cover on that scale, but the supercomputers required are not yet available to do this in a timely fashion, though predictively they will be in the coming next decade. So models will improve.
As to evidence, Google for example to 'climate change' -> pick 'climate change facts' -> pick the 4th or so option, which is:
http://climate.nasa.gov/evidence/
pick the 2nd section, 'Global Temperature Rise', and note reference 7 (the evidence); go to the bottom to find it, where there's a link for ref 7:
http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/news/20100121/
The second graphic there on the right is 'Global land-ocean temperature index' showing the temperature 'anomaly' from 1880 -> ~2012 (can't read the axis exactly), averaged in 1-year steps (noisy) and also averaged over 5 years (better, smoother).
This shows that the global average temperature has risen continuously since ~1910, except that it leveled off from ~1940-1965, then rose again continuously from ~1965 to the present (you have to run your eye through the 5y average to smooth it a bit more -- there are ups and downs but nothing on a 17y scale). So this best-global-integrated warming trend shows no support at all for a recent '17y not-warming' claim.
Of course someone could suggest that this is all fabricated as part of an anti-carbon use US-government conspiracy, when climate is actually not warming at all (most would probably suggest that govt sympathies are likely manipulated by lobbyists in the direction opposite to this). While these are mostly govt-supported scientists doing the modelling, in the general freedom and iconoclasm that exists at least at the scientist level in US govt and university labs, a conspiracy of such magnitude would never survive for long.
This same site also quotes Hansen, who I think was the same NASA scientist back then who actually broke the Climate Change idea some years ago, (which was initially very unpopular with his bosses, pointing to his resolute independence and integrity):
"There's a contradiction between the results shown here and popular perceptions about climate trends," Hansen said. "In the last decade, global warming has not stopped."
I don't know who else you'd trust if not someone like him, and certainly not an investment broker who possibly wants to sell you coal and oil stocks.
Steve (Hfx)
________________________________________
From: naturens-owner@chebucto.ns.ca [naturens-owner@chebucto.ns.ca] on behalf of David & Alison Webster [dwebster@glinx.com]
Sent: Monday, December 1, 2014 9:21 PM
To: NatureNS@chebucto.ns.ca
Subject: [NatureNS] earth not warming ?
Dear All, Dec 1, 2014
I was taken aback last Sept. to read in a financial circular, written
perhaps by a denier, that "The climate...is no longer warming for the earth
has not warmed not in 17 years."
Does anyone who follows climate change developments know if there is any
observational basis for the above quote ?
A well known climate change denier, Jim Inholfe, will soon be chairman
of the US committee on the environment and public works (Maclean's Nov 24,
2014). Those who favor a lowering of greenhouse gas emissions may soon
experience stiffer headwinds.
Yt, Dave Webster, Kentville
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