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Someone here knows more than I do. I think your focus is too much on the negatives, to start with. I believe most tree seed crops, both hardwood & softwood, are strongly cyclical over large areas. The cycles may be pushed, or damped, from time to time by extreme good / bad growing seasons, but I believe they will carry on regardless. As you will know from your apple background, a very large crop one year will almost always be followed by a small crop the next. The trees simply don't have the resources to produce large crops every year. A fruit grower modulates crop load by hand thinners or chemical thinners. No such thing exists in the wild and it's not obvious that the trees would benefit from such. We think too much about how nuts are spread around by birds and squirrels, to the trees' benefit. We need to remember that this is not the case at all for most or all softwoods & many hardwoods. I'm sure there are minor exceptions (carried seeds being lost) but overall conifers, maples, ash, birch etc. ALL distribute their seeds by the wind. Seed eating birds are PREDATORS and nothing more. Therefore, it makes perfect evolutionary sense for widespread populations of trees to synchronize their seed crops & overwhelm these predators with abundance, in a highly cyclic fashion. The trees have no "interest" in feeding these birds. The trees that are out of sync will be heavily predated & will not reproduce. Now, someone can give the correct story. Rick Whitman On Sat, Nov 10, 2012 at 10:07 AM, David & Alison Webster <dwebster@glinx.com> wrote: > Hi Rick & All, Nov 10, 2012 > Is the distribution of this poor seed crop in 2012 associated with > distribution of dry weather this year (poor set or poor development) or with > adverse conditions in 2011 (fewer cones/flower buds) ? > Yt, Dave Webster, Kentville > ----- Original Message ----- From: "Rick Whitman" > <dendroica.caerulescens@gmail.com> > To: "naturens" <naturens@chebucto.ns.ca> > Sent: Wednesday, November 07, 2012 1:34 PM > Subject: [NatureNS] Winter Finch Forecast, Other Northern Birds > > >> I'm pretty sure I didn't post Ron Pittaway's forecast for this winter >> before. He predicted a big move out of the eastern North woods, but >> they will only stay here in numbers if they like the conditions. I do >> have my doubts about our coniferous cone crop & his article implies >> the same: >> >> "The theme this winter is that each finch species will use a different >> strategy to deal with the widespread tree seed crop failure in the >> Northeast. It will be a quiet winter in the eastern North Woods. See >> individual species forecasts for details. Both coniferous and hardwood >> tree seed crops are generally poor from northeastern Ontario extending >> eastward across Quebec to Newfoundland south through the Maritime >> Provinces, New York and New England States. Within the Northeast there >> are pockets of good crops. Cone crops are much better in the Hudson >> Bay Lowlands and northwestern Ontario west to Alberta, Northwest >> Territories and Yukon. Three irruptive non-finch passerines whose >> movements are linked to finches are also discussed." >> >> His article is here: >> >> http://www.jeaniron.ca/2012/finchforecast2012.htm >> >> A number of you have been seeing Evening Grosbeaks & since Nov. 4 Ken >> McKenna & Dominic Cormier have reported Pine Grosbeaks on eBird. I >> also had 3 Pine Grosbeaks in my yard at White Rock yesterday. I don't >> see any eBird reports of Common Redpolls in NS yet. Today I had 46 at >> Horton Landing feeding in birches. So I've already seen 2 winter >> finches that in some years I don't see all winter. It must be a winter >> finch year. >> >> On a somewhat related note, I saw all of the following on the Grand >> Pre dykelands today: Horned Lark, American Pipit, Lapland Longspur & >> Snow Bunting. These have all been "around" but this speaks of winter >> to me. >> >> Rick Whitman
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