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--Boundary_(ID_s10E9d3hsxH3NGxvPGIn0Q)
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To: All
From: John Sollows
Date: Oct. 10/11
The controversy over the proposed seal culls and whether or not they qualify
as "research" takes me back to an earlier life in the field of "action
research." The point behind such research, as I recall, was to answer
questions with results that were immediately applicable. That necessitated
doing research in the real world where the scientist had little or no
control over conditions.
Most of my work involved looking into the socio-economic viability/
sustainability of various sorts of fish culture in poor countries. We
worked with as many farmers/fishers as we could, left the management
decisions to them, provided advice as needed and requested, monitored like
hell, and analysed and interpreted the results. Our results wouldn't have
made it into Nature or Science, but gave pretty convincing evidence of the
widespread viability of the practice, and made some very important points
about what sort of technology is (and isn't) appropriate for poor people.
Consequently, policymakers in at least a couple of countries took, the
practice seriously. It would be nice to know how many poor families became
a little better off, as a result.
I don't know much about the facts behind the seal controversy. Sounds as if
different scientists have different opinions re. the effects of grey seals
on cod stocks. I do know that "no evidence" of an effect usually means "we
don't know," and "no significant effect" can mean "no effect" or simply that
the experiment was not sensitive (expensive?) enough to detect one.
Like farmers, fishers are taking in their circumstances and the natural
phenomena that affect them more continuously than anyone else, and process
the results in the computers between their ears. Yup, they can miss things
and mis-process things (and so can scientists), but they have the most
comprehensive knowledge of the resource on which they depend.
My vibes tell me that if grey seals are booming, cod are declining, a lot of
fishers are blaming the seals, and the seals are otherwise implicated in
having a negative effect on the stocks, let the cull happen, argue about the
level of culling, monitor the results closely, and be ready to make
adjustments. It'll never be pure science, but sometimes, we have to make
decisions with less information than we'd like to have.
Afterthought: Is developing a domestic market for seal products an idea?
--Boundary_(ID_s10E9d3hsxH3NGxvPGIn0Q)
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</o:shapelayout></xml><![endif]--></head><body lang=3DEN-CA link=3Dblue =
vlink=3Dpurple><div class=3DWordSection1><p class=3DMsoNormal>To: =
All<o:p></o:p></p><p class=3DMsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p =
class=3DMsoNormal>From: John Sollows<o:p></o:p></p><p =
class=3DMsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=3DMsoNormal>Date: =
Oct. 10/11<o:p></o:p></p><p class=3DMsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p =
class=3DMsoNormal>The controversy over the proposed seal culls and =
whether or not they qualify as “research” takes me back to =
an earlier life in the field of “action research.” =
The point behind such research, as I recall, was to answer =
questions with results that were immediately applicable. That =
necessitated doing research in the real world where the scientist had =
little or no control over conditions.<o:p></o:p></p><p =
class=3DMsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=3DMsoNormal>Most of my =
work involved looking into the socio-economic viability/ sustainability =
of various sorts of fish culture in poor countries. We worked with =
as many farmers/fishers as we could, left the management decisions to =
them, provided advice as needed and requested, monitored like hell, and =
analysed and interpreted the results. Our results wouldn’t =
have made it into <i>Nature</i> or <i>Science</i>, but gave pretty =
convincing evidence of the widespread viability of the practice, and =
made some very important points about what sort of technology is (and =
isn’t) appropriate for poor people. Consequently, =
policymakers in at least a couple of countries took, the practice =
seriously. It would be nice to know how many poor families became =
a little better off, as a result.<o:p></o:p></p><p =
class=3DMsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=3DMsoNormal>I =
don’t know much about the facts behind the seal controversy. =
Sounds as if different scientists have different opinions re. the =
effects of grey seals on cod stocks. I do know that “no =
evidence” of an effect usually means “we don’t =
know,” and “no significant effect” can mean “no =
effect” or simply that the experiment was not sensitive =
(expensive?) enough to detect one.<o:p></o:p></p><p =
class=3DMsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=3DMsoNormal>Like =
farmers, fishers are taking in their circumstances and the natural =
phenomena that affect them