[NatureNS] Too many kingfishers in Nova Scotia??

Date: Wed, 19 Dec 2007 18:49:03 -0500
From: "Laviolette, Lance (EXP)" <lance.laviolette@lmco.com>
To: naturens@chebucto.ns.ca
Thread-Topic: [NatureNS] Too many kingfishers in Nova Scotia??
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Hi Chris,
 
The methodologies used by the Breeding Bird Surveys (BBS) and the first
Maritime Breeding Bird Atlas to estimate populations are much different.
The first atlas had nothing comparable to the point counts of the
current atlas so had to rely on people taking educated guesses about the
abundance of a species in their square(s).  It's been a long time since
I took part in the first atlas but I seem to recall that there were 5 or
6 fixed levels and the estimate was optional. The BBS provides a count
of all birds seen or heard over a fixed duration along a route composed
of 50 points. Given the completely different methods used its not
surprising that numbers differ so radically. It will be very interesting
to see the results of this atlas's point count information as it is much
closer in methodology to that of the BBS. 
 
I'm not sure how the atlas indicates that the populations of both Belted
Kingfishers and American Robins is stable or how you can definitively
state that the BBS estimates are too high. The BBS trends are based on
annual measurements of the same data collection points over 40 years.
The first atlas was one snapshot in time. What are the estimates of the
first atlas being compared to, the preliminary estimates of the current
atlas? 
 
All the best,
 
Lance

________________________________

	From: naturens-owner@chebucto.ns.ca
[mailto:naturens-owner@chebucto.ns.ca] On Behalf Of Christopher Majka
	Sent: Wednesday, December 19, 2007 4:38 PM
	To: naturens@chebucto.ns.ca
	Subject: Re: [NatureNS] Too many kingfishers in Nova Scotia??
	
	
	Hi Lance, 

	On Dec 19, 2007, at 1:35 PM, Laviolette, Lance (EXP) wrote:


		
		Hi Elizabeth and others,
		 
		The 'estimated' population for whatever region is being
asked about is based on the results of Breeding Bird Surveys (BBS).
There are about 30 in Nova Scotia I believe. 16,000 (individuals not
pairs) is not all that large an estimate for Belted Kingfishers really,
when you consider a species such as American Robin will get you an
estimated population of 3,000,000 for Nova Scotia. Also, it looks to me
as though the estimated number is +/-  %20.


	The Atlas of Breeding Birds of the Maritimes Provinces gives a
Nova Scotia population of Belted Kingfishers of 4,100 +/- 1,600 pairs
and a Nova Scotia population of American Robins of 370,000 +/- 130,000
pairs. If the above estimates you are referring to derive from BBS data
then they are approximately 60% to high for kingfishers and 340% too
high for robins.


		
		 
		As far as the long term trend goes, you can go directly
to the BBS trend analysis page and have a look at the data. It is found
at:
		http://www.mbr-pwrc.usgs.gov/bbs/trend/tf06.html
		 
		Since we're talking about Belted Kingfishers, the trend
in Nova Scotia over the last 40 years is -4.67% (p=0.01)


	The Atlas indicates that populations of both species seem to be
stable.

	Cheers,

	Chris


		
		 


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<DIV dir=ltr align=left><SPAN class=256532423-19122007><FONT face=Arial 
color=#0000ff size=2>Hi Chris,</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV dir=ltr align=left><SPAN class=256532423-19122007><FONT face=Arial 
color=#0000ff size=2></FONT></SPAN>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV dir=ltr align=left><SPAN class=256532423-19122007><FONT face=Arial 
color=#0000ff size=2>The methodologies used by the Breeding Bird Surveys (BBS) 
and the first Maritime Breeding Bird Atlas to estimate populations are much 
different. The first&nbsp;atlas had nothing comparable to the point counts of 
the current atlas so had to rely on people&nbsp;taking educated guesses about 
the&nbsp;abundance of a species in their square(s).&nbsp; It's been a long time 
since I took part in the first atlas but I seem to recall that there were 5 or 6 
fixed levels and the estimate was optional. The BBS provides a count of all 
birds seen or heard over a fixed duration along a route composed of 50 points. 
Given the completely different methods used its not surprising that numbers 
differ so radically. It will be very interesting to see the results of this 
atlas's point count information as it is much closer in methodology to that of 
the&nbsp;BBS. </FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV dir=ltr align=left><SPAN class=256532423-19122007><FONT face=Arial 
color=#0000ff size=2></FONT></SPAN>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV dir=ltr align=left><SPAN class=256532423-19122007><FONT face=Arial 
color=#0000ff size=2>I'm not sure how the atlas indicates that the populations 
of both Belted Kingfishers and American Robins is stable or&nbsp;how you can 
definitively state that the BBS estimates are too high. The BBS trends are based 
on annual measurements of the same data collection points over 40 years. The 
first atlas was one snapshot in time. What are the estimates of the first atlas 
being compared to, the preliminary estimates of the current atlas? 
</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV dir=ltr align=left><SPAN class=256532423-19122007><FONT face=Arial 
color=#0000ff size=2></FONT></SPAN>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV dir=ltr align=left><SPAN class=256532423-19122007><FONT face=Arial 
color=#0000ff size=2>All the best,</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV dir=ltr align=left><SPAN class=256532423-19122007><FONT face=Arial 
color=#0000ff size=2></FONT></SPAN>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV dir=ltr align=left><SPAN class=256532423-19122007><FONT face=Arial 
color=#0000ff size=2>Lance</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr 
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  <FONT face=Tahoma size=2><B>From:</B> naturens-owner@chebucto.ns.ca 
  [mailto:naturens-owner@chebucto.ns.ca] <B>On Behalf Of </B>Christopher 
  Majka<BR><B>Sent:</B> Wednesday, December 19, 2007 4:38 PM<BR><